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arly in the cycle there is little
practical knowledge about the technology. Thus, an organization’s cost/benefit analysis is often
dominated by unknown risk factors making an adoption decision difficult. As knowledge
accumulates over the cycle risks reduction occurs facilitating more informed judgments regarding
adoption.
The hype cycle typically covers the period of time between market introduction and a 30 to 50%
adoption by the mainstream business community. The ABC hype cycle has six phases of
evolution: (1) technology trigger, (2) peak of inflated expectations, (3) trough of disillusionment,
(4) slope of enlightenment, (5) the plateau of productivity, and (6) the post-plateau phase (Figure
1). The first five phases represent the history of ABC, while the sixth phase is the current state.
Visibility
Maturity
Technology
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Profit
Improvement
Activity-Based
Management
Resource and
Capacity Planning
Performance
Management
Cost
Allocation
New
Application
Post-Plateau
Figure 1: The ABC hype cycle.
What results from this exercise is that the evolution of ABC is not unique. In fact, it is
remarkably similar to the life cycle of other technologies, including the achievement of two
milestones typically reached by only mature and successful technologies. First, the performance
of ABC has increased over time reflecting ongoing research and development, cumulative
learning from application of the method, and enhancements in systems technology. Second, the
1 Understanding Gartner’s Hype Cycle, Strategic Analysis Report, Gartner Research, Gartner Inc., 2003.
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behavioral response to ABC has progressed from user enthusiasm, through disillusionment, to
eventual acceptance of the technology’s relevance to business success.
Technology Trigger (1984-1987) Innovations in Cost Accounting
Discontinuous innovation is generally the result of a trigger - an external impetus that stimulates
innovation. The trigger for ABC was the increasing Japanese competition experienced by
western companies, particularly those in the electronics and automotive verticals. Believed to be
the result of low-wage labor and undervalued currencies, they were de facto innovative
management practices, such as just-in-time material flow systems, continuous improvement, and
statistical process control.
The impact of this change on western companies was dramatic. Some retreated and complained
of unfair competition, and others adopted the management practices used at leading Japanese
companies such as Toyota. A few western companies developed innovative practices of their
own, including innovative costing methods.
New approaches to costing emerged in several manufacturing companies. These companies
recognized that the cost accounting systems used at that time had unintended negative strategic
and operational consequences. Tektronix, for example, allocated manufacturing overhead to
products based on direct labor, which encouraged engineers to design products that required less
labor to manufacture. This design directive increased the complexity of products and the nu