摘要:本文是一篇对中国经济分析的加拿大论文,中国以每年8%的速度发展经济,伴随许多影响经济增长的因素,中国的经济增长的主要因素是由外国直接投资(FDI),这对其产生了显著而积极的作用。
normally distributed (see Figure 8).
To correct for serial correlation, we use Newey-West HAC Standard Errors & Covariance (lag truncation=3) again and the new results are reported in Table 9
and from it, we can deduce that the size of FDI is diminished from 0.35% to 0.01% meaning that when we account for other influences/variables, FDI does not have a statistical significance at 1%, 5% and 10% conventional levels and its impact on GDP is overstated.
A 1% increase in FDI leads to a 0.01% increase in GDP therefore significant at 1%, 5% and 10% significant levels.
A 1% increase in LLF leads to a 2.63% increase in GDP therefore significant at 1%, 5% and 10% significant levels.
A 1% increase in LH leads to a 0.39% increase in GDP therefore significant at 5% significant level.
A 1% increase in GCF leads to a 0.36% increase in GDP therefore significant at 1%, 5% and 10% significant levels.
Adjusted R2 is 0.99 goodness of fit. It takes account of loss of degrees of freedom. This means that about 99% of the variation in GDP around its mean is explained by the explanatory variable.
5.3. Limitation of Data and Empirical Analysis
For many years, studies on the relationship between FDI and economic growth have been debated. Various economists and researchers have investigated this relationship using different data estimation like cross section data and time series data. This study uses time series data for the estimation of the role of FDI on economic growth in China.
One of the limitations of this research was the fact of not being able to access data on R&D which would have been used to evaluate the effect of spillover on FDI. Nevertheless The World Bank also explains that statistical systems in developing countries are quite weak and China being a developing country, suffers from this problem. Although none of the results counteracts the proposed literature, the effect of FDI on economic growth is less significant than expected.
6. CONCLUSION
China’s policy aimed at promoting export-oriented FDI has met with remarkable success. It has led to the building of an internationalised manufacturing sector, highly competitive in world markets. FDI firms can be expected to continue to strengthen China’s comparative advantages by increasing its specialisation in the exports of labour intensive products and technology intensive products.
China’s entry into the WTO will have far-reaching consequences. It will put an end to the fragmentation of China’s trade regime and allow a more equal access to foreign resources. FDI has allowed new entrants into China's industry and hence accelerated the diversification of ownership pattern, which has been part of the emergence of competitive structures.
Finally, this paper supports the empirical literature in general, such as Zhang (2001) and Yao and Wei (2007), but the empirical findings of Jai S. Mah (2010) show that FDI inflows have not caused real economic growth in China. The results above account for a positive relationship between FDI and economic growth in the analysis. However, when other variables are taken into account, the effect of FDI on economic growth in China is diminished meaning that other factors influence economic growth more than FDI.
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