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金融股市场案例-股票市场预测可以影响尼日利亚经济活动吗?-CAN THE STOCK MARKET PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN NIGERIA?

论文作者:留学生论文网论文属性:案例分析 Case Study登出时间:2011-11-16编辑:anterran点击率:5250

论文字数:3512论文编号:org201111161133048245语种:英语 English地区:英国价格:$ 66

关键词:stock marketeconomic activityECONOMIC ACTIVITYNIGERIA

摘要:金融股市场案例-股票市场预测可以影响尼日利亚经济活动吗?-CAN THE STOCK MARKET PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN NIGERIA?The stock market has traditionally been viewed as an indicator or predictor of the performance of the economy.

CAN THE STOCK MARKET PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN NIGERIA?

Abstract
The stock market has traditionally been viewed as an indicator or predictor of the performance of the economy. Theoretical reasoning on why stock prices might lead economic activity is based on the "wealth effect" from fluctuations in stock prices, the traditional equity valuation models, and models that attempt to explain how expectations are formed such as the adaptive expectations model and the rational expectations model. The study is based on time series data for the period 1981-2008. Empirical analysis was conducted through stationarity tests, cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model. The results indicate a causal relationship between stock prices and the economy. The stock market does predict the performance of the economy in Nigeria. This is consistent with the wealth effect; the economic activity is affected or "caused" by fluctuations in the stock market. A reformed stock market in Nigeria is advocated to boost domestic savings and increase the quantity and quality of investment.

Keywords: Stock Market, Economic Growth, Prediction, Performance

Introduction 
As the global equity markets have experienced their most explosive growth over the past decade, emerging equity markets have experienced an even more rapid growth, taking on an increasingly larger share of this global boom. Comincioli (1994) notes that while overall capitalization rose from $4.7 trillion to $15.2 trillion globally, the share of emerging markets jumped from less than 4 percent to 13 percent in this period. Trading activity in these markets surged equally fast: the value of shares traded in emerging markets climbed from less than 3 percent of the $1.6 trillion world total in 1985 to 17 percent of the $9.6 trillion shares traded in all world’s exchanges in 1994. Both the global boom and the involvement of the emerging markets in it have attracted the interest of academics and policy makers.

Market capitalization is a leading indicator of economic activity. Studies on stock market development and economic growth tend to view stock market as an indicator or predictor of the national economy. As this viewpoint may be true depending on the stock market development and the nature of economy, the need to examine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2008 become important, given the performance of the economy and the stock market in recent time.

Many believe that large decreases in stock prices are reflective of a future recession, whereas large increases in stock prices suggest future economic growth. Within the study period, Nigeria has witnessed both phases and today we are currently experiencing decreasing stock prices and in other indices of stock market development in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

In the framework of the new growth theory, surprisingly few empirical studies of the relation between stock market development and investment growth are available. The one important study is by Levine and Zervos (1998), who are among the first to ask whether stock markets are merely burgeoning casinos or a key link to economic growth. They examine this issue empirically, finding a positive and significant correlation between stock market development and long run growth.

The stock market as an indicator of economic activity, however, does not go without controversy. An论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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