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英国阿尔斯特大学硕士论文Future trends of housing prices in Beijing

Abstract

This study aimed to forecast the real estate price in Beijing and from five aspects: population, disposable income, land price, rent and deposit interest rates to explore their impact on the housing prices in Beijing. In the background when there was bubble in the real estate industry in Beijing, how to maintain a reasonable market price to avoid the potential risk of collapse was very important. In carrying out this study, it first adopted questionnaires to understand Beijing’s residents’ opinion about housing prices, then, it made use of ARIMA model, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The substance of the research was that it investigated the degree of impact of population, disposable income, land price, rent and deposit interest rates on housing prices in Beijing. The main conclusions showed that the housing prices in Beijing would maintain a continuously rising trend. The correlation analysis results showed, land price, population, disposable income, rising rent and housing prices in Beijing were highly correlated, there was https://www.51lunwen.org/marketing/ no significant correlation between changes in interest rates and the trends of housing prices in Beijing. Finally, this dissertation from four aspects: population, disposable income, rent and land price to bring forward recommendations on controls of the housing prices in Beijing.

本研究旨在预测北京的房地产价格和来自五个方面：人口，人均可支配收入，土地价格，租金和存款利率来探讨其对北京的房地产价格的影响。在后台的时候有在北京的房地产泡沫，如何保持一个合理的市场价格来避免潜在崩溃的风险是非常重要的。在这项研究中，首先通过问卷调查了解北京的居民对住房价格，然后，利用ARIMA模型，相关分析和多元回归分析。本研究的实质是调查的影响程度的可支配收入，人口，土地价格，租金和存款利率的住房价格在北京。主要结论：北京的房价将保持不断上升的趋势。相关分析表明，土地价格，人口，人均可支配收入上升，租金和住房价格在北京是高度相关的，在北京有利率和房价上涨趋势的变化没有显著的相关性。最后，本文从四个方面：人口，人均可支配收入，租金和土地价格，提出了在北京的住房价格控制的建议。
Keywords: Beijing; housing prices; population; disposable income; land price; rent; deposit interest rates

Table of content

Chapter I Introduction……………………………………………………………………………...7
1.1 Background…………………………………………………………………………………………..8
1.2 Aims and objectives……………………………………………………………………………14
1.3 Framework of this dissertation………………………………………………………….15
Chapter II Literature review……………………………………………………………………..17
2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………17
2.2 Influencing factors of housing prices………………………………………………….17
2.3 Supply and demand…………………………………………………………………………….17
2.4 Earnings of investment in housing………………………………………………………33
2.5 Interest rates………………………………………………………………………………………..42
2.6 Critical analysis…………………………………………………………………………………....51
2.7 Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………52
Chapter III Methodology…………………………………………………………………………….54
3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………54
3.2 Research philosophy and research framework………………………………….54
3.3 Research hypothesis……………………………………………………………………………55
3.4 Data selection………………………………………………………………………………………56
3.5 Data Processing…………………………………………………………………………………..59
3.6 Limitation. ……………………………………………………………………………………......62
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