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石油进口国对于油价上涨的脆弱性明显依赖于他们净进口国的程度以及他们国家经济的石油强度。在国际货币基金组织(imf)研究部门的援助下，根据国际能源署与经合组织经济部门的合作得出了一个量化研究结果。欧元区的国家高度依赖石油进口，在短期内遭受了重创，2007年他们的国内生产总值下降了0.5%,通货膨胀上升了0.5%。

美国的GDP下降的最少，为0.3%，主要是因为本土生产满足了更大份额的石油需求。日本的GDP下降了0.4%,其相对较低的石油强度但，在某种程度上几乎完全依赖于进口石油。在所有经合组织地区，在接下来的三年随着全球非石油商品和服务贸易的复苏，这些损失应该开始减少。这个分析假设汇率恒定。

石油价格影响了世界经济的健康发展。自1999年以来的高油价——很大程度上是欧佩克供应管理政策的结果——导致了2000 - 2001年全球经济的低迷,并阻碍了货币的周期性复苏。

Petroleum Oil Price and the Economy

Summary

The vulnerability of oil-importing countries to higher oil prices varies markedly depending on the degree to which they are net importers and the oil intensity of their economies. According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department. Euro-zone countries, which are highly dependent on oil imports, suffered the most in the short term, their GDP dropping by 0.5% and inflation rising by 0.5% in 2007.

The United States suffered the least, with GDP falling by 0.3%, largely because indigenous production meets a bigger share of its oil needs. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4%, with its relatively low oil intensity compensating to some extent for its almost total dependence on imported oil. In all OECD regions, these losses should start to diminish in the following three years as global trade in non-oil goods and services recovers. This analysis assumes constant exchange rates.

Oil prices impact the health of the world economy. Higher oil prices since 1999 – partly the result of OPEC supply-management policies – contributed to the global economic downturn in 2000-2001 and are dampening the current cyclical upturn. World GDP growth may have been at least half a percentage point higher in the last two or three years had prices remained at mid-2001 levels. Current fears of OPEC supply cuts, political tensions in Venezuela and tight stock prices have driven up international crude oil and product prices even further.

The adverse economic impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing developing countries is generally even more severe than OECD countries. This is because their economies are more dependent on imported oil are more energy-intensive, and energy is used less efficiently. On average, oil-importing developing countries use more than twice the amount of oil to produce a unit of economic output as do OECD countries.

Developing countries are also less able to weather the financial turmoil wrought by higher oil-import costs. India spent $15 billion, equivalent to 3% of its GDP, on oil imports in 2003. This is 16% higher than its 2001 oil-import bill. It is estimated that the loss of GDP averages 0.8% in Asia and 1.6% in very poor highly indebted countries in the year following. The loss of GDP in the Sub-Saharan African countries would be more than 3%.

The impact of higher oil prices on economic growth in OPEC countries would depend on a variety of factors, particularly how the windfall revenues are spent. In the long term, however, OPEC oil revenues and GDP are likely to be lower, as higher prices would not fully compensate for lower production. In the IEA’s recent World Energy Investment Outlook, cumulati