英语论文网

he number of adopters. First there is a period in which there are increasing returns than follow ones in which the returns of scale decreases. It is important to notice that fundamental is the view of the curve and not only the first part. Nonetheless when there are path dependences the increasing return of the beginning of the curve can lead to the market failure because they could catch wrong decisions about the choice of the correct technology. This is provoked by a variety of factors: increasing returns in the first part of the graph are generated by expectations, the improving of processes and the development of networks; decreasing returns in its place arise when market is near to saturation.

Figure 1: Trend of return of scale, source from Unruh (2000).

采纳的障碍-Barriers to adoption

When it is recognized that there are better alternative technologies to another, the main causes of non-adoption are barriers to adoption. They are originated, as Unruh (2000) said, by myopic microeconomic decisions. This is influenced also by the interdependence in the technological systems and by decisions from private and public institution.

When a technology prevails the firms who have chosen alternatives are forced out of the market and the market become more concentrated. Firms who remain in the market tend to move innovation from products and the research of alternatives to the development of the processes connected with the winner technology. Usually this technology became the core business of the firm. Also they don't invest their time and money to different alternatives and they stay on the existing competencies because they not incentive the development of technologies that could make obsolete their core one. Another cause connected to the firm's behavior is the irreversibility of investment; more they are huge specialized and durable more an firm is blocked on his old technology.

Another cause of lock-in is the development of a network around a certain technology. More a technology spread, more are the firms who decide to support it and invest on it and so the network grows and the circle restart. If instead there is a sort of uncertain around a new alternative technology, firms could not accept the risk to make irreversible network investment on that technology, so it never diffuse and firms remain locked-in with the old technology. Financial system also can be consider responsible for lock-in. financial institutions prefer to finance firms with well consolidated business and not to finance the develop of business based on new unripe technology. Development of new technology so is often given to joint venture or public research that have higher cost and less chance to move the technology successful on the market.

锁定案例-Lock-in cases

Fossil fuel

One case of lock-in in history is the advent of fossil fuel (Unruh 2000) it happens thanks to the diffusion of two other technologies: the internal combustion engine in the cars and the AC standard for electricity. They are also cases of lock-in.

Internal combustion engines fight for the monopoly of the market with two other technologies: the steam-engine and the electric engine. In the beginning no one considered the internal combustion engine the best option for the market: it was the louder, the more harmful, the more complex and the