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经济学留学生论文范文：回顾费雪假设

Revisiting The Fisher Hypothesis

第一章 介绍

1.1 研究的背景

1930年，欧文·费雪调查了名义利率，实际利率和预期通货膨胀率之间的关系。他发现一个名义通胀率和预期通货膨胀率之间存在着长期均衡关系。通常被称为费雪效应,费雪(1930)发现,通货膨胀率增加百分之一，将会反映在实际利率不变的情况下，名义利率增长百分之一。

费舍尔的假设包括这样关键的宏观经济变量，如利率和通货膨胀，因而导致了大量的实证分析。许多这些关键的动机背后的研究，与费舍尔假设如何影响任何国家的货币政策和货币中立模型相关联。卡内罗、迪维努和罗查(2002)指出,费雪效应的生效意味着实际利率不受预期的变化，影响货币供应量,或通货膨胀率。Nussair(2009),彭(2009)和Hawtrey(1997)强调理解实际利率的行为重要性。至于不仅跨时期的储蓄和投资决策,而且其他基本变量，如汇率对贸易和资本流动的影响。

费舍尔假说已经经历了多年的实证测试,然而,绝大多数的研究从主要发达国家利用数据，如美国,英国和澳大利亚,都取得了好坏参半的结果。

1.2 研究的目标

相比之下,费雪效应实证研究在发达国家的数量，远远大于在发展中国家存在的费雪效应的研究。

印度是世界上最著名的发展中国家之一,结合国家非常高的经济增长率。

第一章 介绍——CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
1.1 研究的背景——1.1 CONTEXT OF THE STUDY
 
In 1930 Irving Fisher investigated the relationship between the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate and expected rates of inflation. He discovered that a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between the nominal rate of inflation and expected rate of inflation. More commonly referred to as the Fisher effect, Fisher (1930) found that a one percent increase in the rate of inflation would be reflected by a one percent increase in the nominal interest rate leaving the real rate of interest unchanged.
 
The fact that the Fisher hypothesis involves such key macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and inflation has led to numerous empirical analyses. A key motivation behind many of these studies relates to how the fisher hypothesis affects monetary policy and monetary neutrality models of any country. As Carneiro, Divino and Rocha (2002) point out, validation of the Fisher effect would imply that real interest rates are unaffected by anticipated changes to either money supply, or the rate of inflation. Nussair (2009), Peng (2009) and Hawtrey (1997) highlight the importance of understanding the behaviour of real interest rates with regards to not only intertemporal savings and investment decisions, but also other fundamental variables such as exchange rates through its influence on trade and capital flows.
The Fisher hypothesis has endured years of empirical testing, however, the vast majority of the studies have utilised data from major developed countries such as the USA, UK and Australia, and have yielded mixed results.

1.2 研究的目标——1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
 
In comparison, the amount of empirical studies of the Fisher effect in developed countries is far greater than the amount of studies that exist for the Fisher effect in developing countries.

India is one of the most well-known developing counties in the world, combined with the country's phenomenally high economic growth rate and Therefore, this study seeks to extend the recent work of Balachandra (2008) by testing for the Fisher effect in a developing economy, and centres on testing in India. The methodology utilised follows
The data is analysed over the period
 
This study is organized as follows:
 
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