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Prediction methods of exchange rate and the evaluation of them

论文作者:英语论文论文属性:作业 Assignment登出时间:2010-04-13编辑:steelbeezxp点击率:4522

论文字数:3389论文编号:org201004131556577496语种:英语 English地区:法国价格:免费论文

关键词:Predictionmethodexchange rateevaluation

Prediction methods of exchange rate and the evaluation of them

Introduction
Exchange rate is defined as the price of a certain currency in exchanging unit of other currencies, and is indispensable tool for international trading, capital flows and any commercial activities between or among countries. It is wild known that Balance of International Payment, Exchange Rate and International Reserve are the basic and backbone of international Financial Theory. Therefore, how to decide the exchange rate is the most essential part of Foreign Exchange Rate Theory, and a hot topic for academic research during centuries. Since the disintegrating of Bretton Woods system in 1973, countries in western implemented floating exchange rate system留学作业代写网提供留学生作业代写 to replace fixed exchange rate system. The fierce and frequent fluctuation of exchange rate brings huge risk to the governments, financial institutions and international enterprises. Because of the huge risk, experts from all over the world pay more attention to researching exchange rate risk and how to judge the exchange rate accurately. Exchange rate theory is developing together with the economy globalization and the ongoing changes of international currency structure. It is a blossoming period for new hypothesis and frames with the commercialization of global market, which researchers explore any possibilities and assumptions from different aspects and points of view. Till now, though more and more methods for predicting the future exchange rates, there are still some difficulties of predicting them, this essay will explain why it is so difficult to predict future exchange rates and critically evaluate the main methods available for predicting the future direction of exchange rates and assess their effectiveness in providing forecasts of use to international companies.

Main body

Why it is so difficult to predict future exchange rates

Evaluation of the main methods for predicting the future exchange rates

Predicting methods base on the theories of exchange rate determination

Theory of Purchasing Power Parity

Theory of Interest Rate Parity

Asset Market Approach

Non-parametric methods of predicting exchange rate

Artificial Neural Network

Wavelet analysis model

Predicting methods base on time series model

Random walk model

Auto regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA

Auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity model ARCH

Evaluation of the effectiveness of these methods

Theory of Purchasing Power Parity

Theory of Interest Rate Parity

Asset Market Approach

Artificial Neural Network

Wavelet analysis model

Random Walk Model

Auto regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA

Auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, ARCH

Conclusion

Reference

Admati, A. R. and Peiderer, P. A (1988) theory of intraday patterns: Volume and price
variability. Review of Financial Studies,1(1):3-40.

Aliber, R. Z. (1975) Monetary independence under floating exchange rates. Journal of
Finance, 30(2):365-376.

Andersen, T. and Bollerslev, T. (1998) Deutsche mark-dollar volatility:Intraday activity patterns, macroeconomic announcements, and longer run dependencies. Journal of Finance, 53:219-266.

Backus, D. K. (1984) Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separatin论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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