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out of a number of results on the basis of just one experiment, the relative chances of that particular result arising can be determined from a large number of experiments. This gives the measure of probability of the incidence of a particular result during one experiment” (M.N Siddiqi, 1985).

Siddiqi (1985), further explained that the law is based on averages which is not affected by any increase or decrease in numbers to the experiments. It has been found that the accuracy in which one can predict the probability of the occurrence of certain incidence over a period of time through this method is astounding.

M.N Siddiqi (1985) however, showed that there is always room left for error, for nothing can be perfect. This error can however, be reduced to an insignificant figure through the help of the “theory of probability which finally makes the computations and formulations still more valuable, reliable and fruitful”.

When one talks of probability, he or she is talking about statistics. At this point we must state that “the value of statistics in all classes of insurance cannot be overemphasized. It is the duty of the statistics section to supply the underwriters with necessary evidence to assist them in deciding whether or not to keep or decline a particular risk, depending on the claims experience (experiments). Methods of keeping statistics vary from company to company, but in all cases the aim is to make it possible for the desired information to be accurate and readily accessible” (J.O Irukwu, 1981). This shows that the statistics section is a vital part of the insurance industry and it works on the law of average or probability.

In marine insurance “particular averages” are applied to cargoes. “Particular averages” means the partial loss caused by peril insured against in contradistinction to general average and total loss as defined by the Nigerian Insurance Act of 1977.

General average on the other hand ‘implies some voluntary sacrifice of property made, or extra-ordinary expenditure incurred, at a time of peril threatening the old property involved in a common maritime adventure, with a view to preserving it from that peril, and embodies the principle that when such a sacrifice has been made, or expenditure incurred, the old property preserved shall contribute to the loss sustained, or the expenditure incurred as the case may be” (F. Templeman and C.T. Greenace, 1973).

In the statistics section of an insurance company there is what is called “the actuary”. J.O Irukwu (1971) states that the Concise Oxford Dictionary defines an actuary as “an expert in theory and practice of statistics especially of mortality, sickness, retirement and unemployment”.

Irukwu (1975) explained that in the life department, the actuary is concerned with the application of probability and statistics and the theory of compound interest to the practical problems of life assurance. His responsibilities further include; the calculation of premiums, evaluation of life fund and various reserves, surrender values, forecasting of financial results on long range and short range basis and advising the insurance company generally on investments and other technical bases of running the life programme successfully.

不确定性——Risk and Uncertainties

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