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加拿大留学生市场分析类论文:黄金时代的终结

论文作者:meisishow论文属性:硕士毕业论文 thesis登出时间:2014-09-17编辑:meisishow点击率:4069

论文字数:2983论文编号:org201409162030362075语种:英语论文 English地区:加拿大价格:免费论文

关键词:golden eramarket黄金时代中国房地产SOHO中国property markets

摘要:本文是一篇加拿大留学生市场分析类论文范文,大家可以通过此文了解一下书写的规范。中国的房地产市场正在降温,这一天终于来了,究竟这一切该如何去发展,可以在本文中找到答案。

加拿大留学生论文


经过几年的谈论关于中国房地产市场的似乎可以抵抗外界重力之后,当地的地产市场巨头们现在正在处于一片衰弱之中。在五月二十六号的时候,郁亮,他是中国最大的开发商万科的总裁,明确的对外宣布中国房地产市场的黄金时代结束了。在当时的那个时代之中,几乎每个人都可以从地产中挣钱。紧接着是来自房地产著名人士潘石屹的评论,他是另外一个房地产公司,SOHO中国的老板。他把中国的房地产比作是影片“泰坦尼克”,他说道这坐大船很快要撞上冰山。


官方数据显示中国的房地产市场确实是盛行期逐步现实化。在今年前四个月,住宅销售额下降了近10%的价值,这个数据是相对于一年前来说的,新住宅和建筑活动下降了四分之一。量较上月下降更为显著(见图表)。


AFTER years of talking up China’s gravity-defying property markets, local land kings are now singing a darker tune. On May 26th Yu Liang, the president of Vanke, China’s biggest developer, declared that the “golden era” in which “everybody makes money out of property is gone.” That came on the heels of comments by Pan Shiyi, the boss of Soho China, another property firm, likening the country’s real-estate sector to the Titanic: “It will soon hit an iceberg.”


Official data show the country’s property market is indeed coming down to earth. During the first four months of this year, the value of residential sales fell by nearly 10% versus a year ago, and construction activity on new homes fell by a quarter. The decline on a month-to-month basis is even more striking (see chart).


Why is the market losing steam? One explanation is that there is too much building going on. Until recently this argument was dismissed by property bulls, who pointed to wave upon wave of rural migrants moving to cities and soaking up supply. Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy, estimates that China has been at or near its sustainable level of “peak supply” of housing for many months.


Cooling demand is another culprit. Despite a cultural affinity for property—no bachelor can hope to win over a desirable bride if he does not own a home—it seems that punters may now be ready to put off their purchases. After years of double-digit growth, the economy is slowing. More importantly, recent price cuts of a third or more being offered by developers in some markets have started to worry would-be buyers. These bargains are now available in wealthy coastal cities and not just in smaller cities in the boondocks.


Zhiwei Zhang of Nomura, an investment bank, acknowledges the problem of structural oversupply but still believes that recent policy shifts are the main factor. Pointing to a close correlation between property-market behaviour and money supply, he says the market correction was triggered mainly by the monetary-policy tightening that began in the middle of 2013.


Not everyone is worried. “This is clearly the beginning of a downturn, the third in eight years, but it is not a bubble bursting,” insists Michael Spencer of Deutsche Bank. Joe Zhou of Jones Lang LaSalle, a property-services firm, points to previous weak periods near the end of 2011. In 2012 the central bank cut the lending rate and nudged state-run banks to make mortgages more readily available. Coming on top of price cuts, this led to a strong rally in sales volumes and prices.


Some think the price cuts will lead to another market rebound. Others hope policy easing will do the trick. Cities are starting to reverse previous bans on owning multiple homes, for example, and the central bank has once again recently encouraged banks to extend mortgages. Many big cities still en论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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