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代写澳洲论文作业,课程作业 找代写可以联系我们QQ:949925041

论文作者:留学生论文网论文属性:作业 Assignment登出时间:2011-07-08编辑:anterran点击率:5896

论文字数:841论文编号:org201107081512053847语种:英语 English地区:澳大利亚价格:免费论文

关键词:代写澳洲论文作业澳洲课程作业

摘要:代写澳洲论文作业,课程作业 找代写可以联系我们QQ:949925041

代写澳洲论文作业Solution 1
(a) Plot the data.
Using the data provided, the data can be plotted as following:
 
(b) Fit a three-year moving average to the data and plot the results.
Let R represents the three-month Treasury bill rates, and
MA represents the three-year moving average,
 
year rate(R) three-year moving average(MA)
1991 5.38 -
1992 3.43 -
1993 3 3.9367
1994 4.25 3.56
1995 5.49 4.2467
1996 5.01 4.9167
1997 5.06 5.1867
1998 4.78 4.95
1999 4.64 4.8267
2000 5.82 5.08
2001 3.4 4.62
2002 1.61 3.61
2003 1.01 2.0067
2004 2.17 1.5967
2005 3.89 2.3567

 
(c) Using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.40, exponentially smooth the series and plot the results.
Let R represents the three-month Treasury bill rates, and
EM represents the exponentially smooth result,
 
year rate exponentially mooth (w=0.40)
1991 5.38
1992 3.43 5.38
1993 3 4.6
1994 4.25 3.96
1995 5.49 4.076
1996 5.01 4.6416
1997 5.06 4.78896
1998 4.78 4.897376
1999 4.64 4.8504256
2000 5.82 4.76625536
2001 3.4 5.187753216
2002 1.61 4.47265193
2003 1.01 3.327591158
2004 2.17 2.400554695
2005 3.89 2.308332817
 
(d) Repeat (c), using W = 0.15.
Similarly as the (c),
Let R represents the three-month Treasury bill rates, and
EM represents the exponentially smooth result,
 
year rate exponentially smooth(w=0.15)
1991 5.38
1992 3.43 5.38
1993 3 5.0875
1994 4.25 4.774375
1995 5.49 4.695719
1996 5.01 4.814861
1997 5.06 4.844132
1998 4.78 4.876512
1999 4.64 4.862035
2000 5.82 4.82873
2001 3.4 4.97742
2002 1.61 4.740807
2003 1.01 4.271186
2004 2.17 3.782008
2005 3.89 3.540207

 
(e) Using results in (c) and (d), what is your exponentially smoothed forecast for 2006? Check the actual value for 2006.
According the results in (c),in the 2006, the three-month Treasury bill rates will be:
rc =0.4*3.89 +(1-0.4)* 2.308332817=2.94100
According the results in (d),in the 2006, the three-month Treasury bill rates will be:
rd =0.15*3.89 +(1-0.15)* 3.540207=3.59268
The actual value for 2006 is 4.73
Available at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Annual/H15_TB_M3.txt

(f) The smoothing coefficient called W indicates that the current forecast should be adjusted to correct the previous forecast. The greater value of (1-w) is, the faster change it responses. Thus the prediction will become unstable. However, a smaller value of (1-w) will cause a delay in prediction.
In the case (d), the value of W is much less than that in the case (c) so 1-W in the case (d) is more than that in the case (c). In addition, as seen from the given data, the three-month Treasury bill rates are volatile, in which greater adjustment alteration to correct the previous forecast will be needed. As a result, the case (d) is more appropriate than the case (c).

Solution2
(a) Plot the data.
Using the data provided, the data can be plotted as following:

 
(b) Compute a linear trend forecasting equation and plot the trend line.
According to the method of least squares,
y = 10928x - 2E+07, R2 = 0.5715,
 
 
(c) Compute a quadratic trend forecasting equation and plot the results.
Using the same method above, a quadratic trend forecasting equation can be drown as following:
y = -1056.5x2 + 4E+06x论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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