英语论文网

90年代的货币和金融危机以及土耳其上一次危机表明，国际金融体系极易受到干扰。造成这种情况的原因是复杂的，并在许多论文中进行了深入的讨论。我想把我的简短意见完全集中在这个问题的宏观经济方面。这首先引发了一个问题：是否需要改革国际货币体系，以确保未来国内和全球金融市场更加稳定。可能会被用于汇率目标区、调节国际资本流动的措施和重新界定国际货币基金组织的任务。为了回答这些问题，特别重要的是，近年来的危机更多地是由于国家经济政策的错误或国际货币体系的缺陷造成的。

1. Introduction 简介

The currency and financial crises of the nineties, as well as the last crisis in Turkey have shown that the international financial system is highly susceptible to interference. The reasons for this are complex nature and have been intensively discussed in many papers. I would like to focus my brief opinion entirely on the macroeconomic dimension of the problem. This raises above all the question whether a reform of the international monetary system is needed in order to ensure greater stability in the domestic and global financial markets in the future. Might conceivably be used to exchange rate target zones, measures to regulate international capital flows and a redefinition of the tasks of the International Monetary Fund. For answers to these questions, it is especially important that the crises of recent years are due more to errors in the national economic policies or defects in the international monetary system.

I'm procedure here that I first discuss the problems of a monetary policy with fixed or determinable exchange rates. In a second step, I will describe the macroeconomic difficulties that arise in purely market-driven ('flexible') can result in foreign exchange rates on this basis can then be checked whether the now dominant concept of 'managed floating' can help ensure that critical developments also under the institutional status quo of the international monetary system can be avoided.

2. Currency Crises with fixed or determinable exchange rates 货币危机与汇率固定或可确定的

All as a 'currency crises' designated events of the last ten years have characterized in that central banks were forced under the pressure of speculative attacks, abandon fixed or pre-announced targets for the exchange rate of the domestic currency. Thus, a definition of the monetary crisis has naturalized, which excludes it from the outset that such an event occurs under other currency regime. However, we will present in the following that may lead to critical development even in free-flexible courses and the 'managed floating'.

Despite differences in national circumstances most currency crises of recent years can be attributed to a relatively similar pattern.

The central bank is pursuing a monetary policy strategy based mainly on a fixed exchange rate (or a specified exchange rate path) to a reserve currency (or a basket of major currencies) supports.
At the same time, monetary policy, however, is not ready, the interest rate policy completely subordinated to the exchange rate policy. She tries rather by a partial sterilization of foreign exchange market interventions to pursue a domestically-oriented interest rate policy.
As a result, this results in a monetary compromise solution in which the interest rate is too low to secure a domestic economic equilibrium. The result is inflationary processes with a tendency to over-investment and increases in real estate and stocks. At the same time interest rates are too high to ensure external balance. The result is temporarily high capital inflows, a strong tendency of residents to borrow in foreign currency and thus also a high fragility of the national fin