t or Eastern Europe, stock markets, commodities etc. Techniques range from fairly simple estimation to using OLS to GMM estimation or even time varying techniques to assess learning. Also GARCH or system GARCH models could be used SELECTED READING: Hansen and Hoderick (1980),” Forward exchange market efficiency as optimal predictors of future spot rates An econometric Analysis”, Journal of Political economy, 88 (5), pp 829-853. Baillie (1989), “Econometric tests of rationality and market efficiency” Econometric Review, 8, pp151-186. Hall and Miles (1992),”Measuring efficiency and risk in the major bond markets” Oxford economic papers, 44, pp. 599-625. DATA SOURCE: DataStream, Ecowin
PRICING DERIVATIVES USING MONTE CARLO TECHNIQUES ISSUES: Pricing non standard derivatives is a complex process. Monte Carlo techniques offer a way of dealing with this problem in some circumstances. There are issue of bias in some monte carlo techniques and ways of minimising or eliminating this. Do these pricing formulas give higher profits on average than simple approximation formulas? This project requires extensive programming. SELECTED READING: Boyle (1977), “Options, a monte carlo approach”, Journal of Financial Economics, 4, pp 323-338. Broadie and Glasserman (1997), “Pricing American style securities using sim英语论文网 【http://www.51lunwen.org】ulation”, Journal of economic dynamics and control, 21,8-9, pp 1323- 1353. Boyle, Broadie and Glassman (1997), “Monte carlo methods for security pricing”, Journal of economic dynamics and Control, 21, 8-9, pp 1267-1323 DATA SOURCE: No Data Required TESTING THE BEHAVIOUR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS
ISSUES: Testing PPP, UIP, Market fundamentals, linkages between exchange rates, causality between markets. Techniques include standard estimation techniques, structural modelling of fundamental models, cointegration between markets, causality tests. High frequency data issues and Chaos. SELECTED READING: Frankel (1979), “On the mark: A theory of floating exchange rates based on real interest differentials” American Economic Review, 69, 4, pp 610-622. Baillie and Selover (1987), “Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination” International Journal of Forecasting, 3, pp 43-52. DATA SOURCE: DataStream, Ecowin
CONVERGENCE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
ISSUES: Defining convergence, convergence and market efficiency, structural change and convergence in markets, convergence in trading and political blocks (e.g. ASEAN, Europe, EMU, Eastern Europe and West Europe). Project involves econometric techniques such as regression analys
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