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政府决策是学习国际关系的一个关键点，所以我们怎么解释呢？有没有完善的理论可以帮助人们了解政府行为？答案是否定的，虽然学者们总是在做研究上这样的问题。但是，如果我们退后一步，不注重预测，可我们只找出案例研究的理论模型，以全面地解释各种现象？不幸的是，这也是不可能的。因为现实太丰富多彩，一个单一的理论从来没有可以利用的各个方面的照顾。那么，为什么我们需要理论？如果我们无法预知的东西，如果我们只需要解释一下，为什么不只是描述一个案件的每一个细节？其原因是，每一个理论模型就像是光在黑暗的房间光束，它可以帮助我们看到现实的一些隐蔽部位沿着其轨道。当我们学到更多的理论，我们能够观察到更深刻的现实。这就是理论的价值所在。在解释格雷厄姆T.Allison谁使用三种不同的理论来interpretate古巴导弹危机所写的古巴导弹危机决策的账面本质。本文的目的是阐述Allison的决策方法，分析在实践中这些模型的应用程序，并重新思考国际关系的理论。Govermental decision making is a key point of learning International Relations, so how can we explain it? Is there any perfect theory can help people to understand government behaviours? The answer is no although scholars are always doing researching on questions like that. However, if we take a step back, do not focus on prediction, can we only find out a theoretical models in case study to explain various phenomena comprehensively? Unfortunately, it is also impossible. Since reality is too colorful, one single theory never can take care of all aspects. So why we need theory? If we can not predict things, if we only need to explain, why not just describing every details of a case? The reason is that each theoretical model is like a beam of light in a dark room, it can help us to see some hidden parts of reality along its track. When we have learned more and more theories, we are able to observe a more profound reality. That is where the value of theory lies. In the book Essence of Decision Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis written by Graham T.Allison who used three different theories to interpretate the Cuban missile crisis. The aim of this paper is to expound Allison’s decision making approach, analyse the application of these models in practice and rethink the theories of international relations.

Chapter 1 Allison’s decision making approachAllison的决策方法

Essence of Decision (1971) has been commended as a “path-breaking enterprise” and as “one of the few sophisticated treatments of the problem of explanation in the study of foreign policy” .In the book, the author try to use a variety of theories to explain three questions: First, why did the Soviet Union deploy the strategic offensive missiles on Cuba? Second, why did the United States use naval blockade? Third, why did the Soviet Union choose to withdraw the missiles?

For any one without any academic training, when they think of the three questions, the most natural reaction is to examine the motives behind actions of American and Soviet Union governments. And attempting to establish the relationships among motivation, incentives and final results. But Allison told us that when your mind enters into this approach, you actually start to use rational behavior model unconsciously. The so-called rational actor model whose basic assumption is that any decision is made on the premise of fully rational analysis, choosing one behaviour means that this behavior can maximize the effectiveness. Therefore, discover the goal behind the behavior becomes a mean to explain the facts. Application in the field of international Politics, this kind of rational actor model regards state as a unified actors. Thus, the analysts can imagine themselves as policy makers of a state and consider how to maximize the interests of the state by standing on leaders’ position without paying further attention to internal decision-making