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Abstract
In this paper, I study two problems about the exchange rate between China RMB , US$ ,Euro, HK$ and UK Sterling, firstly I analysis the factors affect the exchange rate, , secondly I use some methods to predict the exchange rate, I find the AR model is not a good model to predict the exchange rate, while the ARIMA is also not a good model to predict the exchange rate, the different between actually exchange rate and forecast exchange rate is very large, so I think it is very difficult for us to predict the exchange rate.
Introduction
Since 1980s, a distinctive feature of the world economy presents for the global economy and financial Liberalization, integration and globalization. Exchange rate begins to become one of the most sensitive issues in the international 代写term paper financial areas. Particularly since China joined into the WTO.................
Literature reviews
Methodology and data source
AR model and ARIMA model
Data source
Results and discussion
ADF tes
Predict the exchange rate
AR model
ARIMA model
The predict results
Conclusions
References
Liu Zhiguo and Zhou Lijian. The factors affect the exchange rate [J]business Research,2002(5)
Zheng Ming,the trend of RMB exchange rate under the opening economy[J] Statistics and Forecast of the expected.2002(1)
He Changzheng,Ren Peiyu and Yu Tonghai. The research on the factors affect the RMB exchange rate[J]. management world, 2004(5)
Rogoff,Kenneth: Deflation: Determinants, Risks，and Policy options一Findings of an Interdepartmental Task Force. IMF， APril30，2003.
Hang R.andVelase,2000.Exehang Rate Policy for Developing Countries”. Ameriean Eeonomie Review，Vol.90，No.

代写需求
论文题目留学生论文： analysis of exchange rate （Pounds-Chinese RMB）
论文语种：英文
您的研究方向：金融
是否有数据处理要求：是
您的国家：英国
您的学校背景：老师建议用gretl 这个软件去做几个test 原假设 预测汇率走势然后分析结果等等 不包含基础分析Assignment one就是写这个 具体请参考老师发的要求和笔记 字迹有点潦草啊~
老师很强调Critical Evidence！因为是Master level
 要求字数：没有具体要求 大约2000
论文用途：硕士课程论文 Master Assignment
是否需要盲审（博士或硕士生有这个需要）：否
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