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摘要：随着中国资本账户开放和中国的对外经济日益紧密,汇率在国民经济中也担负起越来越重要的作用。汇率波动的决定性因素是外汇风险。因此,商业银行和外资企业必须预防和管理汇率风险。To the complex problem of RMB exchange rate, according to the complicated nonlinear relation between RMB exchange rate and inflation rate, GDP, an international payment of rate and interest rate, and nonlinear characteristics of RMB exchange rate data, with SPSS17.0 software, with RBF neural network technology as the main tools, the paper researches the RMB exchange rate fluctuations and development trend. Based on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the factors of inflation rate, GDP, an international payment of rate and interest rate, it establishes the RBF network model to predict RMB exchange rate, and verify the effectiveness of the prediction value with correlation analysis.

The study of RMB appreciation or devaluation Concerning capital account liberalization in China

Table of contents
Summery
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 Development Process of Capital Account liberalization in China
1.1.2 Conditions on which Capital Account liberalization depended in China
1.1.3 Current Situation of Capital Account liberalization in China
1.1.4 Advantages and Disadvantages of Capital Account liberalization in China
1.2 RMB Exchange-rate
1.2.0 Factors that Influenced RMB Exchange-rate
1.2.1 Impact on RMB Exchange rate increasing
1.2.2 Impact on RMB Exchange-rate reducing
1.2.3 Model Analysis of RMB Exchange-rate
1.3 Relevance between RMB Exchange-rate and Capital Account liberalization in China
1.3.1 Capital Account liberalization’s Impact on economic development in China
1.3.2 Capital Account liberalization’s Impact on formation mechanism of exchange rate in China
1.3.2 Capital Account liberalization’s Impact on Financial markets in China
1.3.3 Capital Account liberalization’s Impact on government’s decision in China
2. METHODLOGY(2000)
2.1 research problems
2.2 research objectives
2.3 Research Approach
2.3.1 Deductive and critical
2.4 Research strategy
2.4.1 case study
2.5 Research Methods
2.5.1 Quantitative analysis
2.5.2 Literature research
2.5.3 Number of research
2.5.4 Simulation method
2.6 Data collections
2.6.1 data choosing
2.6.2 data sheet
3. RESEARCH RESULT (3000)
3.1 Modeling
3.1.1 The tools of modeling
3.1.2 Choosing the model method
3.1.3 Analysis of NN model
3.1.4 Modeling
3.2 SPSS Analyzing of Data
3.3 Describing results
4. DISCUSSION (2000)
5. CONCLUSION (2000)
REFERENCE

Summery
With China's capital account generally opening and China's foreign economic increasingly tightly，exchange rate in the national economy becomes also more and more important role. Exchange rate fluctuation is the decisive factor of foreign exchange risk. Prediction of the direction and amplitude of exchange rate is the first work to determine the risk and harm degree, therefore, commercial Banks and foreign enterprises must do prevention and management to exchange rate risk. Firstly we need to accurately predict the direction and the degree of exchange rate fluctuation to measure the size of the exchange rate risk, and then according to this it needs to formulate corresponding exchange rate risk management strategy. Therefore, exchange rate prediction as basis of a currency exchange rate risk management is one of the important steps of exchange rate risk management. Based on this background, this paper puts forward, under the condition of China's capital account liberalization, the problem of RMB appreciation or depreciation. For this problem it basically researches the trend of RMB exchange rate. Traditional exchange rate prediction methods can be divided into the basic method of exchange rate prediction based on the exchange rate decided model and technology analysis method to predict exchange rate according to the historical data. The former method aims to predict the long-term trend of exchange rate, while the latter is more fancy to short-term rates change trend.
Late 19th and early 20th century, neural network method begins to be used in prediction areas. Its essential is nonlinear dynamic system, and it has the strong self-learning, association and identification function 本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。