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Ratio analysis [2]

论文作者:英语论文论文属性:报告 Report登出时间:2010-04-20编辑:lixiaona点击率:8024

论文字数:2341论文编号:org201004201019142980语种:英语 English地区:英格兰价格:免费论文

附件:IFRA Topic 4.ppt

关键词:analysisforecastingfinancialperformance

sp;       BVE
 it is clear that ROE is equal to RNOA plus a premium equal to RNOA less NIR on net operating assets financed by ND
Example: If RNOA is 20%, FLEV = ND/BVE = 0.5, and NIR is 8%, then:
 ROE  =  RNOA  +  FLEV x (RNOA – NIR)
           =    20%   +     0.5   x (20% – 8%)   =  26%
Interpreting the drivers of ROE
The formula ROE  =  RNOA  +  FLEV x (RNOA – NIR) tells us that ROE is higher for higher levels of FLEV if (and only if) RNOA > NIR
For most businesses, expected RNOA will be greater than NIR (because firms invest in assets with an expected rate of return of return which at least compensates them for business risk) and hence expected ROE will increase as FLEV increases.
Does this mean that financial leverage ‘create values’ by increasing expected ROE?
Generally NO, because higher FLEV leads to higher 由英语论文网www.51lunwen.org整理提供 financial risk and a higher cost of equity
Some implications of relationship between ROE and RNOA
For a given level of RNOA, the level of ROE changes as FLEV changes
Given that for most firms FLEV will vary over time, it is likely that ROE will be more volatile over time than RNOA
This suggests that it might be easier to predict future RNOA from past RNOA than to predict future ROE from past ROE
As we will see in session 5, the AOPVM focuses on prediction of RNOA, while AEVM focuses on prediction of ROE

2. Drivers of RNOA

RNOA provides a measure of the ability of a business to generate profits from its main operating activities and is an important ratio in the implementation of the AOPVM
RNOA  =  NOPAT  =  NOPAT  x  Sales
                    NOA          Sales         NOA
              =  NOPM  x  ATO
This breakdown of operating profitability is commonly referred to as the ‘Du Pont model’ and emphasises that RNOA is positively related to both NOPM and ATO
Drivers of RNOA (continued)
NOPM  =   Gross Margin  –  Expenses  +  Other income
         Sales            Sales              Sales
–  Tax (on recurring activities)   +/ –  Exceptional items (after tax)
     Sales                    Sales
 where expenses can be further broken down into components such as administration, selling, R&D, etc

To predict future NOPM, it may be useful to focus on the first four components of NOPM because exceptional items (by definition) are non-recurring

Drivers of RNOA (continued)
Reciprocal of asset turnover can be conveniently split into components such as: 
   1      =  Operating working capital  +  Long-term NOA
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