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Content

1. Introduction 2
2. Literature review 6
2.1 Theory Review 6
2.2 Review of Empirical Literature 8
2. Theoretical analysis 14
2.1 Balance of payments perspective 14
2.1.1 Analysis of capital account 15
2.1.2 Analysis of current account 15
2.2 Conversion of assets perspective 16
A conclusion of the analysis of these two perspectives 17
2.3 Two ‘parity’ perspective 18
2.3.1 Analysis of purchasing power parity 18
2.3.2 Analysis of interest rate parity 20
2.4 Monetary analysis of exchange rate perspective 24
3. Research with data 26
3.1 Research Methods 27
3.2 Selection of indices 30
3.2.1 Selection of exchange rate index 30
3.2.2 Selection of interest rate index 34
3.2.3 Selection of real output index 35
3.3 Empirical Analysis 35
3.3.1 The simple analysis of the effect on American exchange rate of interest rate 35
3.3.2 Further analysis of the effect on American exchange rate of interest rate 38
3.4 Analysis for research result 42
Conclusion 44
References 47
Figures 51

Tables content
Table 1:  selection of partner countries of America in NEER calculation…….........33
Table 2:  Granger causality test of the federal funds rate and discount rate ..........34
Table 3:  unit roots test for lnNEER and lni  …………………………………………36
Table 4:  unit roots test for lnNEER, lni and lnGDP …………………………………..38
Table 5:  analyse results from different data and models  ………………………..…41