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Literature review for the inflation [3]

论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:文献综述 Literature Review登出时间:2010-06-22编辑:vshellyn点击率:7251

论文字数:论文编号:org201006221804217851语种:英语论文 English地区:英国价格:免费论文

关键词:Literature reviewthe inflationstock

es should be considered within a more or less periods.
Hasan. M.S, (1995) attempted to analyses the relationship in the UK, using a range of relative methodologies, such as regression results, VEC model. The result is also accordance with the Fisher’s view. However, in the article, he also compared and explained some different views by other economists who claim inflation and stock prices have a negative relationship.留学生论文http://www.51lunwen.org/

With different views, several classic articles include Nelson (1976), Fama and Schwert (1977), Jaffe and Mandelker (1976) suggested an inverse relationship between inflation and stock returns. Various discussions of the negative relationship have been offered.
Fama (l977) who is an American economist on behalf of the negative correlation between inflation and stock returns created two assumptions: the money supply was exogenous and kept stable; people’s expectation was rational. And according to the quantity theory of money MV = PY, in the process of inflation, because M was stable, it is clear that real economy (presented as Y) would decline, and because the whole economy downturn, the prospect of the economy looked gloomy and less optimist. Therefore, shareholders would sell stocks, and then stock prices fell (Fama EF., 1981).
Many scholars researched the relationship based on Fama’s theory, for instance, Solnik (1983) found that the stock prices of a significant number of countries had a negative correlation with inflation; Gultekin (1983) researched more than seven EU countries’ and American’s information and somewhat supported theory of Fama. These experts made a study on the data after World War Two, almost all of them attempted to prove that during the war periods, especially in American market, the relationship is negative between inflation and stock prices. Sharpe (2002) made a study of Standard & Poor’s Indices 1979-1998 and drew a conclusion that the higher inflation always corresponded to the lower stock prices. Ritter and Warr (2002) inspected the data of US stock market from 1983 to 2000, and came to the conclusion that low inflation rate would be the birth of the stock market bull. Geske and Roll (1983) further developed Fama’s theory; they think that the changes of money supply and money demand are related to the relationship. So they attempted to examine the behaviors of money supplier. They argued that the central bank implemented a counter-cyclical monetary policy caused by the budget deficit, and the policy leading to the negative correlation between stock prices and inflation. Their assumption was that when the real economy was under shock the central bank would adopt the counter-cyclical monetary policy, the analysis approach as follows: the unforeseen fall of stock prices was the signal to anticipate the decline of future economic activities, the decline of future economic output would reduce the government revenues, however people often expected government expenditure unchanged, which would certainly make the investors believe that government would have a financial deficit. Under the circumstances of the fiscal deficit, the government would issue more nominal money, which government action cause the inflation rising, so that leading to the negative correlation between stock prices and inflation. They also surveyed the relationship between US stock prices and inflation after World War Two, and then also conclude a negative relationship.留学生论文http://www.51lunwen.org/
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