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Literature review for the inflation [4]

论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:文献综述 Literature Review登出时间:2010-06-22编辑:vshellyn点击率:7262

论文字数:论文编号:org201006221804217851语种:英语论文 English地区:英国价格:免费论文

关键词:Literature reviewthe inflationstock

ted that money supply and money demand, in realistic, play a decisive role in effecting the relationship. He sets out that money demand and counter-cyclical money supply could explain the negative correlation between postwar stock prices and inflation in the United States. He also pointed out that if money demand is accompanied by the pro-cyclical money supply, then the relationship between stock prices and inflation might be positive. Kaul’s standpoint can be expressed as follows: if real economic growth (downturn) causes the increase (decrease) in money demand, and then money supply goes up (goes down), then it would cause a corresponding rise (decline) in price of commodities. Therefore, the pro-cyclical monetary policy would give rise to the positive relationship between stock prices and inflation; counter-cyclical monetary policy would lead to the negative relationship.
According to Kaul’s theory, Graham (l996) made an empirical test utilizing US data from l953 to 1990; the results reflect that in different periods the relationship present different features: before 1976 and after 1982, there was negative relevance between stock price and inflation. Between 1976 and 1982, the relationship was positive, which is worth considered that during different periods the relationship can present different natures. I suppose that because various economy conditions and Graham considered the reason is the changes of US monetary policy. At the same time, he also examined how the fiscal deficits effect on the relationship and disagreed with Geske and Roll.

Conclusion:
Reviewing previous literatures, we can draw a conclusion that there is a close relationship between inflation, interest rate, and stock return, which is also a controversial debate, and interest rate and cash flows are two mainly factors fluctuated by inflation. The government wants less budget deficits by implementing monetary policy which is mainly consisted by interest rate changes; the changes of interest rates as discount rates are used in calculation of stock market. Little researches have been done in discovering how inflation influences on concentrated companies and competitive companies respectively, which is an area that my dissertation focus on.
I suppose that the specific inflation can affect stock returns through changes cash flows; and general inflation through influence on interest rates to affect on stock market. Therefore, specific Inflation can be seen as a double-edges sword impact on companies’ cash flows. On the one hand, it can enhance companies’ cash flows due to higher selling prices. On the other hand, as general goods prices are increased by inflation, the cost of productions getting higher as well. Inflation can induce a broader fierce competition and make companies less profitability due to higher selling prices and higher costs respectively. Therefore, it is worth to consider whether or not specific inflation could really enhance cash flows of companies, and then increase share prices. As concentrated companies who are enough mightiness, powerful and monopolistic in the industrial field, seems always get benefits from inflation, because concentrated companies play a dominant role in the market: the customers have no alternative options to choose and have to accept higher purchasing prices; Moreover, taking advantages of famous brands and economic strengths, the concentrated companies may not be impacted by higher material costs. In con论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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