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The study of the financial bubble mechanism of China stock market

论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:短文 essay登出时间:2010-10-19编辑:anne点击率:6620

论文字数:17880论文编号:org201010192351324720语种:英语论文 English地区:英国价格:$ 66

关键词:financial bubble mechanismChina stock marketstock market bubbleTesting MeasurementEvaluation index system

Abstract
Over 10 years history of Development of Stock Market in China, we often can observe the sharp fluctuations phenomenon of stock index. The stock market bubble from time to time is a matter of concern and debate. Especially in the year of 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index surged new highs. The stock market becomes a hot topic in society, and bubble becomes the object of heated debate before the nearby finance crisis. So we need a scientific criterion to determine and measure the stock market bubble. This is the essay定制 incentive point of this paper.
First of all, this article briefly introduce the conception of financial bubbles,and generating and expanding analysis. Then, the article systematically summed up the current inspection and measurement in the world, and gave the related theories a reasonable assessment and recommendations. In last part, following the theory, we made the empirical analysis of China’s stock market to judge the existence of China’s stock market bubble, and to measure the size of the bubble and concretely analyze of the reasons for China’s stock market bubbles. Based on these, we gave reasonable policy recommendations to the Government on preventing and controlling the stock market bubble, safeguard financial security.

Content
Abstract 2
1. Introduction 4
2. Literature Review 5
2.1. History and current research situation 5
2.2 The basic defining 6
2.2.1 The meaning of the bubble 6
2.2.2 The meaning of the financial bubble 8
2.3 Virtual capital and financial bubbles 9
2.2 Institutional factors and financial bubbles 11
2.2.1 Monetary system 11
2.2.2 Credit System 12
2.2.3 Shareholding system and the exchange system 13
2.3 Market factors and the financial bubble 15
2.3.1Uncertainty of the financial market 15
2.3.2Imperfection of the financial market 17
3. Theoretical Analysis of the stock bubble 22
3.1 Historical events of the stock bubble 22
3.1.1 1990 stock market bubble in Japan 22
3.1.2 The Nasdaq stock market bubble at the beginning of this century 23
3.2 The analysis of main factors to the stock market bubble 25
3.2.1 Human bounded rationality 25
3.2.1.1 Herding 26
3.2.1.2 Speculation 27
3.2.2 Information Defects 28
3.2.3 Other factors 30
4. Methodology 31
4.1Test of the stock market bubble 31
4.1.1. Overview of the stock market bubble test 31
4.1.2. The stock market bubble of the indirect test 32
4.1.2.1 Runs Test 32
4.1.2.2 Variance Bounds Test 33
4.1.2.3 Improved Variance Bounds Test 36
4.2 The direct examination of the stock market bubble 37
4.3 Measurement and evaluation of the stock market bubble 39
4.3.1 Based on the intrinsic value : DDM 39
4.3.2 Measure of bubble 42
4.3.3 Changes of the Measure formula 42
4.4 Relative valuation indicators for the bubble measure 43
4.4.1 Price-earnings ratio (P / E) 43
4.4.2 Bubble coefficient method 45
5. Empirical analysis of www.51lunwen.orgthe Chinese stock market bubble 46
5.1 The basic situation of China's stock market 47
5.2 The test and measurement of China stock market bubble 48
5.2.1 The test of China stock market bubble 49
5.2.1.1 Runs test 49
5.2.1.2 Duration analysis 50
5.2.2 The measure of China stock market bubble 51
5.2.2.1 PE ratio 52
5.2.2.2 The measurement of bubble coefficient 55
5.3 Analysis of China stock market bubble 57
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