UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON
SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics GROWTH EPISODES
MATTHEW J MOSELEY
Presented for B.Sc. (Social Sciences)
EconomicsI declare that this
dissertation is my own work, and that where the material is obtained from published or unpublished work, this has been fully acknowledged in the references.
Signed: ……………………………………………………………..
(Student’s Signature)
2
Contents
1 Introduction...........................................................................................6
2 Latin America’s Growth Experience............................................................8
3 Identifying Growth Episodes....................................................................12
3.1 Conceptual Framework and Empirical Issues.......................................12
3.2 Methods ........................................................................................16
3.3 Descriptive Statistics.......................................................................17
3.4 Robustness of Methods....................................................................21
3.4.1 Methods of Smoothing Data .......................................................21
3.4.2 Assumptions and Parameters Used to Define a Growth Episode .......26
3.4.3 Data .......................................................................................27
4 Mechanics of Growth Episodes ................................................................28
4.1 Neoclassical Growth
Accounting ........................................................28
4.2 Factor Accumulation........................................................................31
4.3 Sources of Productivity Gains ...........................................................34
4.3.1 International Trade ...................................................................35
4.3.2 Labour Employment ..................................................................37
5 Association with Policy...........................................................................39
5.1 International and Domestic Policy ......................................................39
5.1.1 International Trade ...................................................................40
5.1.2 Domestic Markets .....................................................................41
5.2 Monetary Policy ..............................................................................43
5.3 Implications for Policy .....................................................................44
6 Conclusion...........................................................................................45
Bibliography .............................................................................................47
Appendix I - Figures .............................................................................50
Appendix II - Tables .....................................................
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