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论文题目：Can portfolio/asset models explain the rise in the price of gold?
论文语种：英文
您的研究方向：Finance Economics
是否有数据处理要求：是
您的国家：英国
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要求字数：12000
论文用途：硕士毕业论文 Master Degree
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Can portfolio/asset models explain the rise in the price of gold?

Abstract

For a long time, gold as a measure of value, means https://www.51lunwen.org/jrfx/ of circulation, storage means, means of payment, and other functions of the world monetary is concerned by the world, how to predict the price of gold has become as an important theoretical and empirical research topic. China's representative gold market forms less than a decade, the formation of the gold futures market is also less than three years, in recent years, China has become the gold supply and demand of power, the formation mechanism of the price of gold is worth studying. The CME futures price of gold, as the world's gold with a strong impact on the price of gold in China, whether the formation mechanism of gold price in China is integration with the world gold price, how is the transmission mechanism of CME futures price of gold on the spot price of gold in China, what are the factors in the transmission, are the research questions required in the formation function of the Chinese gold market. The current research on the gold price forecast is more use of multiple linear regression model, because the impact of the hypothesis variables of multiple linear regression model on the price of gold remains unchanged throughout time, it is clearly inconsistent with the actual situation.

The main point of this study is that the transmission of the present CME futures prices of gold on the spot price of gold in China outweighs the costs. Through the empirical research, it concluded that the transmission mechanism of the CME futures price of gold on the gold spot price in China hindered, and the gold futures price discovery function in China was effectively without such findings, mainly due to the formation of China's gold price there are some confounding factors, the Chinese futures market building there are some flaws. In view of the problems, the dissertation proposed the following recommendations: optimize the main structure of gold trading to promote competition in the gold spot market; optimize the investor structure of gold futures to develop miniature gold futures contract, open electronic trading of gold futures, and relax settlement system.

Keywords: CME futures price of gold; Gold spot price; Transmission mechanism; VAR model

Table of Contents

Abstract 3
Acknowledgements 5
List of Figures 9
List of Tables 10
Chapter 1 Introduction 11
1.1 Research background 11
1.2 Research aim and objectives 13
1.3 Contributions of this study 14
1.4 Framework of this study 14
Chapter 2 Literature Review 16
2.1 Introduction 16
2.2 Definition and explanation of core concepts 16
2.2.1 Price of gold 16
2.2.2 Price transmission mechanism 17
2.3 Stability analysis of the determinants of the price of gold 17
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