摘要:Through empirical analysis on policy factors towards the stock market, we found that the stock market reacted strongly to the policy. The problem of “policy market” is rather serious.
central enterprises, and the development of private enterprises, have addressed all the listed companies, the development of the funds needed, to reduce the risk of the banking system, so many medium and small enterprises have been developed. And also because of this feature, prompting many companies blindly financing, malicious financing, such as the cases of Ping An Insurance Company’s high finance, likely to make the stock market become the ATM of companys development.
5. a faulty not health market
Chinas stock market has a fine development up to date, despite of the government and functional departments attaching great importance, with very concerned and very caring; it put great importance to protect the interests of investors, in particular to protect the interests of small investors, and attaches great importance to maintain the markets healthy and stable development. But the stock market still exists in many complexes and comprehensive issue is the existence of Chinas stock market instability. Such as: securities regulations are incomplete and non-matching; listed company information transparent and non-timely; the internal management of listed companies non-standard (large shareholders of listed companies occupy money); the New Shares refinancing; the contradiction problem between the dominance one and the size of non-negotiable and so on, they are troubled to the stock market development.
6. a departments market in management
Chinas stock market authority is “SFC (Securities Regulatory Commission)”. In the recent years of fluctuations in the stock market, we can find that department which affects the stock market operation has the central bank, Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, the State Asset Regulatory Commission, and so on. The central banks decision to raise interest rates, raising bank reserve cut interest rates, can affect the stock market volatility; Ministry of Finance, Inland Revenue Department increases tax, cuts tax, increase or decrease in stamp duty, can affect the stock market volatility. In June of the year 2008, one-time to raise bank reserve fund 1% of the points on the stock market tape transferred from the positive trend to lower stamp duty to decline.
2 Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Policies on China’s Stock Market
2.1 Econometric modeling
For a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of policies on Chinas stock market, we divide the process of the policy role affected into five stages (according a research report written by Zheng Mingqi, 2007), including the policy open day represented by 0, as shown below:
Figure 2 Timeline of the Policy Effect
In the intrinsic value of the estimated period (no policy stage), because of the absence of external factors, we assume that the phase ( ) value can to reflect the true intrinsic value of the stock, and then the market model of the first of i stock the intrinsic value is as follow:
(Formula 1)
By estimating the value of observation period, we express the market model as a system regression equation:
Among which,vector
vector
vector
The OLS estimator using the observations in the estimated period of market model parameters is:
(Formula 2)
Then the non-normal return vectors in ex-ante checkout period, within phenomena checkout period, ex-post checkout period and v
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