摘要:Through empirical analysis on policy factors towards the stock market, we found that the stock market reacted strongly to the policy. The problem of “policy market” is rather serious.
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT 2
摘 要 3
1. Introduction 4
1.1 Meaning and Purpose of the Study 4
1.2 Literature Review 5
1.3 China’s Stock Market Development and Current Situation 6
2 Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Policies on China’s Stock Market 10
2.1 Econometric modeling 10
2.2 Date Collection 13
2.3 Econometric Analysis and Conclusions 14
3 The Reason Why “Policy Market” Appears 15
3.1 The Emergence and Development of the Stock Market Has a Specific Institution Context 15
3.2 Stock Market is in the “Emerging + Transition” Stage of Development, and the Market is still Weak 16
3.3 Government is the investment subject and interests basis of Stock Market 16
3.4 The Character of Investment in Chinese market 18
4 The Harmful consequences Cause by “Policy Market” 19
4.1 Weakening the Function of Resource Configuration of Stock Market 19
4.2 Encourage Speculation, against the Investment Value 19
4.3 Increase the Cost of Reform of Government Policy 20
4.4 Restrict the Process of China’s Economic Reform 21
5 Recommendations for Improving the Stock Market 21
5.1 Institutional Innovation 21
5.2 Coordination in Market Policy and Macroeconomic Policy 22
5.3 Block of the International Financial Capital, and Put into the International Financial Institutions 23
5.4 Class Action Trial in the Stock Market System 24
Conclusion 25
References 26
ABSTRACT
From the early 90s of 20th century, Chinas stock market has been established for more than ten years, however, the stock market ups and downs in this process. With the constant development of Chinas stock market, the impact on whole national economy of the stock market is remarkable day by day. Overview of Chinas stock market volatility for each of ups and downs, we can find the impression of the policy.
We should know what impact on the stock market of police, if we study the problem. So, in the paper I adopt the event study. In this paper, we build an econometric model, to research policy factors on the stock market fluctuations. Through empirical analysis, we found that:
(1) Policies do have a significant impact on Chinas stock market; the problem of “policy market” is rather serious.
(2) With the development of stock market, it will play a more and more important role in determining the efficiency of carrying out of monetary policies.
In order to improve the stock market, to avoid the harm aspects of “policy market”, we should enhance the institutional innovation, draw up positive financial and economic policies, and hold a correct view on international capital, meanwhile trying out a Class Action in the Stock Market System. At the same time, our government has to pay close attention to the impact on stock market of policy in order to improve its impact on actual economy, and the government should make maintaining stability of the stock market as it ultimate objection of policy.
Key Words:policy, stock market, fluctuating, empirical analysis, policy market
摘 要
中国股票市场从20世纪90年代初建立至今已有十余年的发展历程,然而在这一过程中股市大起大落,牛熊市反复无常。随着中国股票市场的不断发展,股市波动对整个国民经济的影响也日益显著。综观中国股市每次大的起伏的背后,我们可以发现其背后闪现着政策推波助澜的影子。
对该问题的研究首先需要明确政策对股市究竟有何影响。我们采用事件分析法来进行研究。本文通过建立计量经济模型,研究各政策因素对股市波动的影响。通过实证分析,
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