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环境库兹涅茨曲线分析 [6]

论文作者:英语论文论文属性:学术文章 Scholarship Essay登出时间:2014-12-05编辑:yangcheng点击率:19240

论文字数:6622论文编号:org201412042326188732语种:英语 English地区:马来西亚价格:免费论文

关键词:兹涅茨曲线分析environmental Kuznets国民核算论文留学生论文

摘要:本文是对毛里求斯的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析的留学生国民核算论文,本文试图通过考察碳排放的情况及其对国内生产总值(GDP)影响来估计毛里求斯的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),同时分析通货膨胀率、失业率和人口规模这些变量与GDP和碳排放之间的直接或间接联系。文章考察了毛里求斯在1990 - 2010年期间的经济增长与碳排放之间的关系。

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Another problem related with the EKC studies is the little attention that has been paid to the statistical components of time series analysis. Very few studies in the past investigated the presence of unit root in time series of variables used to investigate the validity of the EKC.

 

Econometric critiques

 

Stern (2004) in a survey argued that, the econometric criticisms of the EKC falls into four main categories: heteroscedasticity, simultaneity, omitted variables bias, and cointegration issues.

 

Perman and Stern (2003) investigated the data and models for unit roots and cointegration respectively. Panel unit root tests designated that all three series – log sulfur emissions per capita, log GDP capita, and its square – have stochastic trends. Results for cointegration are less definite. About half the individual country EKC regressions cointegrate but many of these have limitations with “incorrect signs”. Some panel cointegration tests point out cointegration in all countries and some accepted the non-cointegration hypothesis. However, even when cointegration is found, the form of the EKC relationship varies radically across countries with many countries having U-shaped EKCs. In case there’s a common cointegrating vector in all countries it will be strongly rejected.

 

Coondoo and Dinda (2002) carried out an analysis for Granger Causality between CO2 emissions and income in various individual countries and regions. In general, model that emerged was that causality runs from income to emissions or that there is no significant relationship in developing countries, while in developed countries causality runs from emissions to income. Still, in every case the relationship is positive so that there is no EKC type effect.

 

Waheed et al. (2006) research began testing the presence of a unit root in each of the macroeconomic series using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller (1979). The ADF test constructs a parametric correction for higher-order correlation by assuming that the series follows an AR(k) process and adding lagged difference terms of the dependent variable. There had been a propose simple modification of the ADF approach to construct DF-GLS test, in which the time series are detrended so that explanatory variables were 'taken out' of the data prior to running the test regression. Also Lopez, (2009) analysis included a median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions with an extension of median-unbiased estimation to the DF-GLS regression of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996).

 

Data and Time Series Properties

 

To study the relationship between the GDP of Mauritius and the CO2 emission in Mauritius the annual data that are being used are; total CO2 emission from 1976 to 2008, the real GDP from 1976 to 2008, the population of Mauritius from 1976 to 2008, inflation rate of Mauritius and the unemployment rate of Mauritius.

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