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英国经济衰退的宏观经济迹象 Macro-Economic Signs of a UK Recession

论文编号:lw201711011343269945 所属栏目:宏观经济学论文 发布日期:2018年02月05日 论文作者:无忧论文网
英国经历了几次衰退,最近一次是在2008年的最后两个季度到2009年的第三季度。金融业尤其是银行纷纷透露他们已出现亏损,政府被迫介入救助。利率下调到了0.5%,失业率飙升至1981年以来最高。2009年的国内生产总值在本季度萎缩了1.9%,是1979以来最差的。
毫无疑问,失业和经济增长是英国和其他地区经济衰退的两个最值得注意的宏观经济指标。政府要实现充分就业和可持续增长,必须有一个有效的经济政策,该政策概述明确的目标,这些目标将产生一致的结果。
话虽如此,一些既定目标可能相互冲突,这意味着,在达到一个目标的过程中,另一个目标是“牺牲”。例如,为了在短期内实现充分就业,在较长时期内可能发生的通货膨胀。
 
EXPLAIN THE MACRO-ECONOMIC SIGNS OF A RECESSION IN THE UK 解释英国经济衰退的宏观经济迹象

Introduction 简介

The UK has been through several recessions, the most recent was in the last two quarters of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. (The Guardian, 2009) reported that the financial sectors were in tatters especially RBS who revealed that they made a loss of £28bn as a result the government was forced to step in with a bailout package. Interest rate was cut to 0.5%, unemployment spiralled to £2.2mil the highest since 1981. In 2009 GDP shrank by 1.9% during the quarter, the worst since 1979.

Without any doubts, unemployment and economic growth are the two most noteworthy macro economic indications of a recession in UK and elsewhere. For government to achieve full employment and sustainable growth there must be an effective economic policy which outlines clear objectives that would yield consistent results of success.

Having said that, some of the objectives set are potentially in conflict with each other, which means that, in attempting to achieve one objective, another one is ‘sacrificed’. For example, in attempting to accomplish full employment in theshort-term,price inflation may occur in the longer term.

What is macro economic?

(Anderton, 2008, p.147) refers to “macro economics is the study of the economy as a whole”. To elaborate on Anderton’s definition, it is a branch of economics which focus on the different aspects of the economy and how they are interrelated to each other for generation of wealth. The aspects include performance of the country, its behaviour and decision taken related to the economy of the country. The major indicators of macroeconomics are unemployment, inflation, economic growth, interest rate and balance of payment.

What is recession?

(BBC, 2013) refers to recession as thedecline of real national output over two consecutive quarters causing a contraction in the total volume of production in the economy.

Economic indications of a recession in the UK

To know how well an economy is performing against these objectives, economists employ a wide range of economicindicators. Economic indicators measure macro-economic variables that directly or indirectly enable economists to judge whether economic performance has improved or deteriorated. Tracking these indicators is especially valuable to policy makers, both in terms of assessing whether to intervene and whether the intervention has worked or not.

Economic Growth
According to (Tutor2u.com, 2014), economic growth “is the long term expansion of a country’s productive potential”. This productive expansion is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the official calculation used to compute output in most economies including the UK. Why GDP is so important? It is an important indicator because it measures the success of an economy. The general concept of GDP is that, the higher the GDP the more successful a country will be in terms productivity. In the UK, the growth of GDP is carefully observed by institutions and companies. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BOE) used GDP as a means to set and adjust interest rate accordingly.

In a bid to control rising price in a recession, MPC could increase interest rate however if the economy is experiencing sluggish growth, MPC would be expected to freeze, lower interest rate, or weakening the sterling pound by means of trading it on the stock exchange market in order stabilise the economy. The Treasury and the Chancellor use the GDP to set economic policy. In case of contraction, taxes would be lowered and government spending would increase as a result.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses the GDP figure t