2015年和2020年之间,在英国,总人口预计将上升3%,65岁以上的人数预计将增加12%,约110万;85岁以上的人数将增加18%,约30万;百岁老人的数量预计将增加40%,为7000人。65岁以上的人有很大的增长,根据相关研究,他们的医疗费用是年轻人的4倍以上。从国际视野来看,60岁以上的人口占一个国家或地区总人口的10%,或65岁以上的人口占总人口的7%,这意味着这个国家或地区的人口步入老龄化社会。老龄化社会引发了很多问题。然而,对于医药行业来说,老龄化社会可能会促进药品销售达到高峰。在这一部分中,本文将分析优势、劣势、机会和威胁(SWOT分析)由英国药品市场面临的,特别是在老龄化社会背景下。从这个分析中,我们可以得出一个一般性的图片,以评估在未来的英国的药物短缺的可能性。
Between 2015 and 2020, in the United Kingdom, the general population is expected to rise 3%, the number aged over 65 years old are expected to increase by 12%, roughly 1.1 million; the number aged over 85 years old are expected to increase by 18%, roughly 300,000; and the number of centenarians are expected to increase 7,000 people and the percentage increases by 40%. People aged over 65 years old are increasing greatly; according to relevant research, their medical care costs are 4 times higher than costs of young people. In the perspective of international views, when people aged over 60 years old constituting 10% of the total population of a country or a region, or people aged over 65 years old constituting 7% of the total population, it means the population of this country or region step into the aging society. Aging society causes a lot of problems. However, for pharmaceutical industry, the aging society might promote the pharmaceutical sales to reach the peak. In this part, this article is going to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis) facing by the drug market of the UK, especially under the context of the aging society. From this analysis, we can draw a general picture to assess the possibility of drug shortage in the UK in the future.
The SWOT analysis of the industry reveals the position of the UK pharmaceutical industry in aging associated diseases.
1) Strengths
The UK’s economy is beginning to stabilize since 2016. Recovery of economy means aging people could have more disposable income spending on their health care;
UK labour costs are lower than EU average cost. Lower cost could help pharmaceutical enterprises to control their cost and further expand their producing capabilities;
Immigration in UK has been higher, which provides a bigger market and more labour force;
Aging population’s medical care costs are much higher than cost of young people, which may promote the pharmaceutical sales to reach the peak;
Social self-governance of UK. The
strategy to the aging problem is worthy of the name a key project, which needs government, society and market’s participation. Old-age care needs to emphasize the government responsibility, because the basic old-age insurance is one of the important parts of social security, and only the country can be capable of organizing and implementing the project. Old-age care also needs participation of the society; everyone would be old after all, to carry out mutual assistance and volunteer service activities for the elderly is one of the ways of social self-governance.
2) Weakness
Low degree of product concentration. Too many pharmaceutical companies are struggling in the pharmaceutical market of the UK.
Enterprises’ products repeat and overlap seriously. Especially a lot of products coming from foreign pharmaceutical companies which are repetitive and overlap.
Low sales volume of drug companies. Foreign players have challenged the position of local pharmaceutical companies in the
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