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nt is a measure of relative conservatism and not aggregate conservatism. The measure is used to proxy for the extent to which conservatism varies across firms.''

收入/收益的措施——Earnings/accrual measures

''Earnings measures. Basu (1997) and Watts (1993, p. 11) predict negative earnings changes are more likely to reverse in the next period than positive earnings changes. The reason is that (by selection) negative changes are likely to include more asset write-offs and write-ups of liabilities. Since these reductions in earnings and net assets anticipate future cash flow effects, next period's earnings will not on average have such write-offs and will increase. On the other hand, the implications of positive earnings changes are not fully incorporated into current earnings producing positive dependence in positive earnings changes. This prediction can be extended to earnings levels. Again by selection, negative earnings are more likely to include asset write-offs and liability write-ups. Given these charges are of a one time nature, next period's earnings are less likely to be negative. Positive earnings will be less likely to have these reversals. Givoly and Hayn (2000) point out that this asymmetric effect on earnings will produce negative skewness in the earnings distribution.

Evidence that negative earnings changes are more likely to reverse than positive earnings changes already existed in the literature before Basu (1997), in particular in Brooks and Buckmaster (1976) and Elgers and Lo (1994). Basu also finds this result. He regresses earnings changes deflated by beginning-of-period price on lagged deflated earnings changes. The estimated slope coefficient for positive earnings changes insignificantly different from zero, consistent with positive earnings changes being permanent and not reversing. The estimated slope coefficient for negative earnings changes is significantly negative (-.69), but is not significantly different from minus one, the value expected if negative earnings changes are completely transitory. This result is consistent with write-offs due to conservatism causing earnings changes. If those write-offs capture all expected future losses on the assets, they would be completely transitory.'

Accrual measures [9]

'Givoly and Hayn (2000) note that conservatism reduces cumulative reported earnings over time. They suggest the sign and magnitude of accumulated accruals over time are measures of conservatism. In a steady state (no growth) with no conservatism, earnings would converge to cash flows and periodic accruals would converge to zero. 'A consistent predominance of negative accruals across firms over a long period is, ceteris paribus, an indication of conservatism, while the rate of accumulation of negative accruals is an indication of the shift in the degree of conservatism over time' (Givoly and Hayn, 2000, p. 292). Consistent with conservatism, Givoly and Hayn (2000) find that the distribution of return on assets (whether derived from time-series of individual firms or the cross-section of firm-years) is negatively skewed for most of the period they examine (1956-1999). Givoly and Hayn also find that over the period 1965-1998 accruals (excluding depreciation) cumulate to an amount that represents 16% of cumulative earnings over the same period. This accumulation occurs from 1982-1998, consistent wit本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。