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当代紧缩政策的四大谬误:丢失的传统凯恩斯主义

论文作者:Robert Boyer论文属性:硕士毕业论文 thesis登出时间:2016-04-07编辑:anne点击率:2614

论文字数:12654论文编号:org201604061431582142语种:英语论文 English地区:英国价格:$ 66

关键词:紧缩政策欧盟凯恩斯理论新古典理论

摘要:在2011年对公共债务的迅速遏制的绝对必要的正在形成的共识应受到质疑,因为它具有非常弱的基础和所依赖的是由凯恩斯的通论战斗对四名危险的宏观经济谬误。

1. Introduction 介绍

美国当局拒绝纾困雷曼兄弟的破坏性后果,对大多数经济学家和政策制定者都是一个惊喜。传统的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型没有考虑金融市场的衍生物,和关联的大型金融机构(Smets和哲学,2002)。他们曾认为只有外生冲击会影响结构稳定的市场经济。现代数学金融是非常有信心的风险评估模型,假设一个主要的金融崩溃是非常不可能的,如果有瞬时进入深和液体金融市场运行稳定的宏观经济制度。独立保守的中央银行家在维护价格稳定和正统的电荷禁止购买或接受作为抵押任何稿件收到29七月2011 2011 1十一月收到最终版。The devastating consequences of the American authorities’ refusal to bail out Lehman Brothers came as a surprise for most economists and policymakers. Conventional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models had not taken into account financial markets, derivatives, and large and interconnected financial entities (Smets and Wouters, 2002). They had assumed that only exogenous shocks would affect a structurally stable market economy. Modern mathematical Finance was highly confident in the risk evaluation models that assumed a major financial crash was extremely unlikely if there existed instantaneous access to deep and liquid financial markets operating within a stable macroeconomic regime. The independent conservative central banker was in charge of defending price stability and the orthodoxy forbade it to buy or to accept as collateral any Manuscript received 29 July 2011; final version received 1 November 2011. 

The inability to anticipate and then understand the brusque reversal of economic activity initially led to a puzzling silence from mainstream economists. It also signalled a return towards the previously neglected authors whose analyses could make intelligible the economic processes observed during the bubble and its bursting. This ‘bursting’ was called the Minsky moment, when financial experts rediscovered that bubbles were endogenous (Davis, 1992) and that, under some circumstances, they could trigger a systemic equivalent to the Great Depression of the 1930s (Minsky, 1975, 1982). Facing the risk of its repetition, Irving Fisher’s debt deflation theory was also perceived as a relevant reference in order to understand the joint collapse of the prices of most financial assets (Fisher, 1933). In the realm of economic policies, under the pressure of events and urgency, the central bankers and Ministers of Finance have been reminded not to repeat the errors of the 1930s: expand liquidity even to speculators, let the automatic stabilisers play their role and if these instruments are insufficient, do not hesitate to cut taxes and increase public spending, especially if the interest rate tends towards zero. Some analysts have even announced the comeback of John Maynard Keynes and, thus, the defeat of new classical macroEconomics. However, as soon as the output freefall had been reversed, and the financial panic stopped via extended and unprecedented guarantees given to commercial and investment banks, financial profits have been booming again. It even turned out to be profitable to buy the Treasury bonds granted to bail out the banks by the equivalent of a purely domestic ‘carry trade’. Although macroeconomists and international organisations had been discussing the optimal strategy for central bank balance sheets and public debt to return to normality, in the spring of 2010 the recognition by Greece that its public deficit was far larger than had previously been announced triggered a violent reappraisal by financiers of the sustainability of the public debt of many European Union member states. Via a brutal rise in the price of credit default swaps (CDS) over sovereign debt default and a necessary hike in the inte论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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