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摘要

研究表明,在发达国家,收益和账面价值都是在预测股票价值方面都发挥着极为重要的作用。然而在中国,收益看起来是极具信息量的，但是收益本身似乎随着时间的变迁，其重要性在不断地削弱。账面价值与股权价值的联系重要且紧密。在中国经济发展面临巨大风险和极度不稳定的环境下,未来预期收益相当不确定,投资者可能并不太关注收益,但更关心账面价值。关于账面价值所扮演的角色和发挥的作用,有不同的解释。

有些研究人员认为账面价值是极为重要的，因为他有助于控制规模差异(巴斯和喀拉普,1996),但是有些人认为账面价值发挥着重要的作用,因为它是正确预测未来收益的一个有用的代替指标(奥尔森,1995)。还有一些人得出这样的结论:相关估值的损失和公司经营的不成功经常是极为相关的(博杰、奥菲克和斯沃瑞1996;巴格泰勒和帝切夫1997)。本文的结果表明,总体来说,收益和账面价值是中国股票定价领域极为重要的两个方面。此外,本研究表明，在一个不稳定的经济环境和不成熟的股票市场条件下,如中国,账面价值也是很重要的，这些国家经济的资本市场仍处于早期阶段。

Abstract

In this paper, some factors are examined which are associated with equity value in an immature and emerging market, China. In the developed countries, research has indicated that both earnings and book value are playing an important role in forecasting equity value. While in China, earnings seems to have information content but earnings, by itself, seems to be weakening in importance over time. Book value has a more significant association with equity values. In the risky and unstable environment of China, where future expected earnings is quite uncertain, investors may not be pay much attention to earnings, but be more concerned for the book value. Regarding the role of book value, there are competing explanations.

While some researchers conclude that book value was only important because of its contribution as a control for scale differences (Barth and Kallapur, 1996), others conclude that the important role book value played because it was a useful proxy for expected future normal earnings (Ohlson, 1995). Still others conclude that it is only relevant in the valuation of loss making and unsuccessful companies generally (Berger, Ofek and Swary 1996; Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997). The result of this paper indicates that, overall, earnings and book values are two important determents for pricing stock in China. Furthermore, this study indicates that book value is also important in an unstable economic environment and immature stock market, like China, which is still in early stage of capital market.

1 Introduction

1.1 Brief history

In the mature market, empirical research finds that earnings and book value can be used to predict firm value. In particular, researchers have examined the association between earnings, book value, and a combination of both with stock prices and have found it to be significant (Ball and Brown 1968; Ball 1972; Kaplan and Roll, 1972; Collins and Kothari 1989; Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997).

In an important paper referred as a landmark work, Ohlson (1995), in a famous paper, modeled this association and provided a widely used framework for empirical exploration. Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), a significant study in this area, indicated that equity value is an option style combination of recursion value and adaptation value. Recursion value (see Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997) is capitalized expected earnings when the firm recursively applies its current business technology to its resources. Adaptation value means the value of the firm’s resources adapted to alternative use. Current earnings are used as a proxy for recursion value and book value of equity本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。