摘要:In this paper, on the basis of the review of traditional financial theory, the author points out the challenges and problems. Through the analysis of the traditional financial theory and behavioral finance theory, this dissertation combines with the performance of the abnormal phenomena of the real estate market in China, and then finally draws some conclusions:
Abstract
First behavioral finance is from the
Psychology and behavior of individuals to explore the relationship between the various economic phenomenon, tries to explain the rules and the nature, it takes a positive attitude to focus on the market actually happened, as well as the cause of this result, the traditional financial theory research thought that ideally what should happen is of more realistic guiding significance.
Secondly, using behavioral finance can be effectively used to analyse real estate market anomalies.. At present, China's real estate market still exists the phenomenon of many inconsistent with the efficient markets hypo
thesis, traditional financial theory cannot give a convincing explanation for this phenomenon, and behavioral finance have just made up for the shortage. These phenomena also prove that China's real estate market has yet to be standardized and perfected.
This
dissertation focus on describing some of the list among the real estate marekt anomalies, such as turnover, P/E ratio, housing vacancy rate and so on.. By P/E value, the vacancy rate, turnover rate, an empirical analysis of the indexes of housing price to income ratio can be seen that Chinese real estate market has speculation phenomenon, and then through the empirical results also verify the real estate market irrational expectations of price is the primary cause of speculation, the root cause of the irrational price expectations, that is, information asymmetry, market noise trading, obviously under the influence of herd behavior, the more aggravated the real estate market price fluctuations and irrational expectations.
Table of contents
ABSTRACT 1
1. INTRODUCTION 4
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND 4
1.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 5
1.3 RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE 5
1.3.1 Theoretical significance 5
1.3.2 Practical significance 5
1.4 DISSERTATION STRUCTURE 6
15 INNOVATIONS AND LIMITATIONS 6
1.5.1 Innovations 6
1.5.2 Limitations 7
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR IN BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE 8
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2.3.1 The assumption of reasonable people is unreasonable. 12
2.3.2 It is unreasonable for the irrational traders’ behavior offset each other 13
2.3.3 Arbitrage is band limited 13
2.3.4 The efficient market hypothesis test has some problems 13
2.4 MAIN THEORIES AND MODELS OF BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE 14
2.4.1 Psychology foundation 14
2.4.2 Theory foundation 18
2.4.3 Investors’ behavior model 20
2.5 SUMMARY 21
3. METHODOLOGY 22
3.1 THE COMPARATIVE STUDY 22
3.2 THE COMBINATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS METHOD 22
3.3 LITERATURE AND STATISTICAL RESEARCH 22
3.4 SUMMARY 23
4. ABNORMAL PHENOMENON IN REAL ESTATE MARKET 23
4.1 THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET 24
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4.2.3 In real estate market people chase price increasing 28
4.3 EXPECTATIONS IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF PRICE VOLATILITY--EMPIRICAL STUDY—SHANGHAI REAL ESTATE MARKET 29
4.3.1 The selection of variables and data sources 29
4.3.2 model establishment and test 30
4.3.3 Regression model analysis 32
4.4 SUMMARY 32
5. BEHAVIOR FINANCE EXPLANATION ON REAL ESTATE MARKET 33
5.1 SYSTEMIC DEVIATION OF INVESTOR BEHAVIOR 33<
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