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关键词:inflation impactstock pricesliterature review
Chapter X: Literature review
X.1 Studies of inflation related to the change of interest rate and share prices
In the realm of academic studies, the relationship between inflation and the change of interest rate and prices has been a topic of interest in Economics and financial studies for a long time. Generally, economic growth and real stock returns are expected to have a positive relationship; opposite, there is a negative relationship between interest rate and stock return. However, these relationships, particularly the relationship between economics英国课程作业
inflation and real stock returns, continue to be unresolved matters in both theoretical and empirical literature. Under monetary neutrality, real stock returns would not be expected to change as a result of a permanent shock to inflation. Contrarily, empirical evidence of an inverse relationship is found in several classic papers including Nelson (1976), Fama and Schwert (1977), and Schwert (1981). Various explanations of this phenomenon have been offered. Modigliani and Cohn (1979) suggest that agents’ difficulty in distinguishing between real and nominal interest rates leads to faulty discounting while Feldstein (1980) shows that taxation related to depreciation and capital gains is affected by inflation which, in turn, affects real asset valuation. Fama (1981) posits that the inverse relationship is the result of a negative relationship between inflation and economic activity and a positive relationship between economic activity and stock prices. Benderly and Zwick (1985) support Fama’s arguments. Sharpe (2002) argues that the negative relation between equity valuations and expected inflation is the results of two effects: a rise in expected inflation coincides with both lower expected real earnings growth and higher required real returns.
X.2 Causes and effects of inflation
X.2.1 Causes
X.2.2 Effects of inflation
References
Barro (1996) “Inflation and Economic Growth,” by Robert Barro. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 78, pp. 153-169.
Barro, Robert J. (1993) Macroeconomics , John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 4th Edition, Cambridge.
Bohn, H. (1991) “Budget Deficits and Government Accounting,” mimeographed, University of Pennsylvania.
Bruno (1995) “Does Inflation Really Lower Growth?” by Michael Bruno. Finance & Development. Vol. 32, no. 3. September 1995. pp. 35-38.
Bruno and Easterly (1998) “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth,” by Michael Bruno and William Easterly. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 41, pp. 3-26.
Bryan, M. F. & Palmqvist, S., (2004), “Testing Near-Rationality Using Detailed Survey Data”, PM, Sveriges Riksbank.
Bryan, M. F. & Venkatu, G., (2001a), “The Dem Graphics of Inflation Opinion Surveys”, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Bryan, M. F. & Venkatu, G., (2001b), “The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women”, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Burdekin, et al (2000) “When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies,” by Richard C.K. Burdekin, Arthur T. Denzau, Manfred W. Keil, Thitithep Sitthiyot, and Thomas D. Willettt. Claremont Colleges Working Paper in Economics.
Eisner, R. and P. Pieper, “ A New View of the Federal Debt and Budget Deficits,” The American Economic Review 74 (1), 11-29, 1984.
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