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Janice Madden, have demonstrated that metropolitan areas that grow faster also tend to see the best gains at the bottom of the income distribution. The best explanation for the positive long-run relationship between regional income growth and an improved distribution of income is the “hysteresis” model of labor markets. Put simply, hysteresis models are ones in which history matters: people aren't simply identical 'labor units' entering and leaving the labor force. In rapidly growing areas, there is more opportunity for increased labor force participation by people who may not have been in the labor market before. Building up a work history and learning better work habits leads to faster growth, which increases the economic potential of low-income households, racial minorities and other disadvantaged groups even more than for citizens who enjoy greater economic advantage. Metropolitan growth is, therefore, generally progressive.

 

The progressive benefits of growth can be somewhat offset by increases in rents and house values. Growth in housing costs tends to benefit existing owners and increase the tax base, but such growth harms renters and newly forming young households, and may slow the growth of our labor force. Thus, on balance, increasing housing costs reduces the gains from growth. These increases in housing costs, however, are generally not sufficiently high to fully offset the gains from increases in income and declines in unemployment from employment growth. This is one reason it is important to put in place an appropriate regulatory environment for housing and real estate, that is, one that mitigates external costs of development (like congestion) without unduly increasing housing costs. Especially in cities like Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Portland; overly stringent real estate regulations have reduced the potential progressivity of local growth.

 

A number of recent studies show that net increases or decreases in employment mask even larger job 'churning,' the situation resulting from companies simultaneously firing and hiring employees. In a typical year in the United States, for every hundred manufacturing jobs, ten disappear (permanently or temporarily); and nine new ones are created. Employment growth is a combination of increasing our gross positive flows from employment openings and business expansions, while limiting gross declines from closings and contractions. In fact, about twice as much variation in employment net growth is explained by gross increases than is explained by gross declines. Declines do matter, of course, and the pain and cost of any plant closing is very real to those involved and not to be trivialized. But the data also show quite clearly that the 'action' is in openings and expansions. One should be very aware of these facts when considering policies to address plant closings. While good arguments can be made for some advance notice of layoffs, and real issues arise related to the responsibilities of firms that have accepted large public subsidies, making plant closings or layoffs extremely difficult probably does nothing to retain plants in the long run, and can surely serve as a barrier to expanding and creating new openings.

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