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sponsive to changes in relative prices and to changes in the exchange rates in the long run than in the short run. Brada et al. (1997), who divided the data set into two sub-samples, reports no long-run relationship between the variables of the trade balance function in the 1970s but they have revealed reverse results for the 1980s

Kale (2001) points out that a real depreciation of the domestic currency helps to improve the trade balance with a lag of about one-year and the impacts of devaluations on the trade balance are positive in the long-run.

Haque et al.(1990) used a generalised non-linear 3-staged least square estimation for the period 1963-87. They used a conventional model where real imports is expressed as a function of real domestic output, real exchange rate and a lagged import term. All signs were significant. Real imports were found to be real exchange and income inelastic. While the above factors were used as the main determinants of exports, there are also other also factors which are important determinants of trade.

2.2.2 其他因素影响双边贸易——2.2.2 Other factors affecting bilateral trade

2.2.2.1 通货膨胀率和贸易——2.2.2.1 Inflation rate and trade

Inflation is defined as a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. High inflation is like to have a negative effect on trade flows because it reduces exports competitiveness and makes imports cheaper. When domestic price rises, foreign goods are relatively cheaper (ceteris paribus) and demand for imports should increase, Inflation adversely affects some sections of the population, distorts relative prices, erodes value of financial assets and creates uncertainty and instability in the economy. This may lead to an overall decrease in output in the economy since investors and producers is faced with uncertainty about future prices and economic outcome. Gylfason(1998) used cross-sectional data covering 160 countries for the period 1985-1994 and found that high inflation tended to be associated with low exports in proportion to GDP. Kotan and Saygili(1999) found that inflation rate significantly and positively affect non-oil exportation in the long-run while in short run inflation did not have any significant impact of non-oil production.

2.2.2.2 投资与贸易——2.2.2.2 Investment and Trade

There are valid theoretical reasons why a high investment ratio should give rise to a strong export growth performance. One theoretical background is provided by Ghosh and Chandrasekhar(2001). They stated that the rate at which international trade grows varies over any period. Also a country's ability to increase its exports would depend on its production structure and the rate at which this structure is changing. Furthermore, countries normally engage in international trade by XXXodernizesXXXg in the production of certain commodities only. Therefore a country's ability to increase its exports will therefore depend on its capacity to rapidly transform its production structure in the direction of commodities where world trade would grow faster. The rapidity of this transformation is linked to the investment ratio(ratio of investment to GDP), that is the higher the investment ratio, the higher the rate of transformation of the production-structure and hence the greater the abi