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BSS009-3 Business Forecasting and Simulation
assignment One – Forecasting (weighted 50%)


Issue Date: Monday 22nd October 2012

这是一个单独完成的小作业。
This is an individual assignment.

这个小作业分配为两部分，第一部分占加权的40%，而第二部分占加权的60%。第一部分为书面报告，第二部分为实用元素,其中还包括运用Excel进行预测的任务。
This assignment will be submitted into two parts.  The first part will be weighted 40% whilst the second part will be weighted 60%.  The first part is a written report and the second a practical element, which will comprise a forecasting task using Excel.

作业的要求和具体说明可以到我们单位的网站上（BREO）进行下载。
The data for the assignment and instructions on how to download it are available via the unit BREO site.

第一部分——书面报告
Part One  -  Written Report


Write a report (maximum 2,000 words) explaining, with appropriate referenced theory, the methodology that you intend to use in order to produce a four-step ahead forecast for your dataset.  The report should cover the following areas:


1. An examination of the data and description of the nature of the dataset with which you have been supplied. (40%)
2. Discussion and justification of the three techniques you have decided to use; (30%)
3. Your reasons for rejecting other techniques that you consider inappropriate; (20%)
4. Some discussion of other forecasting issues that should be considered when attempting to produce medium to long term forecasts (10%)





在附表中你会看到自己的任务会分配在第八周和第十一周之间，此外，在课堂上你还会有很多的机会得到帮助，我会乐意为学生们解答问题以提供支持。
Note: You will see from the schedule that time has been set aside in Weeks 8 and 11 for working on the assignment.  In addition, there will be plenty of opportunities to ask for help during class times.  I will be happy to provide appropriate support to students who have made a reasonable attempt.  Please don’t leave the work till the last minute; I may not be https://www.51lunwen.org/businessplan  available (in person or via e-mail) over the Christmas break.


Return Dates: I will aim to provide feedback (including the grade) through BREO by the following dates:


Part One:  Monday 17th December 2012.
Part Two: Monday 4th February 2013.


You will receive feedback through Turnitin on BREO.  If you require further, more detailed feedback, then please speak to me.






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