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ill accelerate the process of regional tourism cooperation; Five is the opening of the high-speed development and conducive to shift concept, improve the image of tourist destination.
First, the high-speed opening make the original passenger transport capacity can be shifted to the logistics, the logistics industry a better environment for development, especially in railway logistics development faster. 2. People travel more convenient and cheaper; can choose a way to travel more. Transport differentiation competition gradually formed.
With high iron significantly shorten the transportation time; using High-speed commuter is significantly more frequently in urban areas and the urban areas of journeys, commuter circle expanding population to urban areas peripheral distribution trends. Living environment will be improved; spreading type urbanization road will be reversed. Vigorously promote the construction of Ningbo east city.

1.41 Harbor industry
In 2013 the city's industrial enterprises above designated size to achieve output of 1.2795 trillion Yuan.
In 2015, Ningbo port-surrounding industrial output will reach 800 billion Yuan，Accounted for 40% of the city's total industrial output. (Petrochemical industry, steel industry, automobile industry, shipbuilding industry, papermaking industry)
Strive for to 2015, the automobile production capacity of 800000 cars, 500000 sets of production engine, automobile and parts industry to achieve output value 200 billion Yuan, become the important economical and intermediate car and parts manufacturing base and the supporting center, one of the regional development base of a car.
1.42 Traditional industries
Strive to up to the end of the 12th five-year(2010-2015), the city's traditional advantage industry achieve gross value of industrial output 500 billion Yuan, industrial output value accounted for about 25%. (Clothing, household appliances, spinning, electrical engineering and electric apparatus, mould, stationery)
1.43 Modern service industry
At the end of the 2015, the added value of producer services accounted for 55% of the total value added of the service industry, emerging producer services added value accounts for above 15% of the total value added of the service sector. To 2015, the city's imports and exports totaled $150 billion, exports of $88 billion, $62 billion of value.
1.44 Emerging industry
Creative design 'grafting' clothing, household appliances and other traditional industries by 2015, the creative design industry output value of 12 billion Yuan. Predicts 2015, the city's strategic emerging industries output value reached 600 billion Yuan, reached 30%, the proportion of total output value of industrial value added rate is higher than the industry average of 3% over the same.

2. Literature review 文献

2.1 Hoffmann Ratio

W.G. Hoffmann (1931) summarized the rules of dynamics of industrial structure in the industrialization process. With the advances in technology, the tertiary industry would be in the dominant position instead of the secondary industry. He has studied the pattern of industrial growth in about twenty