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在模块五中案例作业里，我们会给什么是衰退下一个定义，也会指出我们是否认为下一波衰退即将到来。我会进一步解释我为什么会认为下一波衰退已经临近了。我也会解释是什么经济因素对商业循环产生了最大的影响。最后，我将会讨论我是否认为这个商业周期已经结束。

从2001年九月到11月这段时间，美国经历了一场可怕的经济大衰退。尽管这场经济衰退持续时间很短，也没有听闻的那么可怕，但是却有很多人因此而下岗，个人收入严重下滑，也受到了股市下跌的影响。许多美国人都觉得他们舒适的生活开始变得压抑。对于我们的经济状况来说这并不是最高点，并且我们也绝不想再次经历这样的东西。然而，美国似乎面临着另一场经济衰退。经济衰退往往发生在两个连续的经济缩水时期。经济规模往往通过国内生产总值来衡量，就是指美国国内所有产品以及服务的价值总量。

由位于洛杉矶的加利福利亚大学发起的每年四次的“安德森预测”做出了预报，预测了2007年第四季度和2008年第一季度的国民生产总值增幅只有1%。高级经济预测师大卫舒曼说：在2008年余下的时间里，经济增长将会继续保持温和趋势，直到2009年才会回升至3%

For module five case assignment, we will define what a recession is and indicate whether we think another one is on the horizon. I will explain why I think a recession may be near. I will also explain what factors in the economy will have the biggest impact on the business cycle. Finally, I will discuss whether I think the business cycle is dead. 

During the periods of September 2001 to November 2001 the U.S. experienced a terrible time in our country for our economy; it was a recession. Even though it was only for a short period of time and it wasn’t as bad as it sounds, there were people who got laid off from work, that suffered a decrease in personal income, and that felt the effects of the stock market decline. American’s felt that their comfortable lives were starting to unravel. This was not a “high point” for our economy and it’s definitely not what America wants to endure again. However, there has been talk that America may be close to another recession. A recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters when the economy shrinks. The size of the economy is measured by gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession)1 

The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles predicts growth in the gross domestic product of just over 1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2008. Economic growth will remain 'tepid' for the remainder of 2008 and return to 3 percent in 2009, said David Shulman, senior economist for the forecast. That growth is just above the traditional definition of a recession. 'Of course, when the economy slows to a 1 percent pace, it runs the risk of falling into an actual recession”, Shulman wrote. 

(https://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/12/business/realestate/main3253507.shtml)2 The housing slump has been the biggest weight on the national economy. The combination of higher interest rates and weaker home prices during the housing slump had its toll on homeowners. Foreclosures have climbed to record highs as more and more overstretched people find it impossible to make their mortgage payments. Housing has played a critical role in the current economic expansion. About 30% of the employment growth nationally over the last 3 years was directly due to housing. The direct effects of the housing sector are the jobs in new construction, renovations, and remodeling, building materials, mortgage brokerage and real estate sales. The indirect effects of housing are also critical and lead to spending on home appliances, furniture, and other household-related goods. In addition, the wealth effect associated with higher housing prices further increases spending on goods and services. (https://www.liu.edu/cwis/CWP/other/centers/pdf/recessi本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。