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外汇管理风险防御计划

论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:案例分析 Case Study登出时间:2010-12-20编辑:anterran点击率:15534

论文字数:14253论文编号:org201012201143079899语种:英语 English地区:美国价格:免费论文

附件:20101220114307072.pdf

关键词:foreign exchange risk managementmanage riskfactorsTime to ruin

THE McKINSEY QUARTERLY 1996 NUMBER 1
THE SAD TRUTH about foreign exchange risk management programs is that most出国留学论文 wouldnot pass the doctorÕs basic test, ÒFirst, do noharm.Ó A study of nearly 200 large companiesyielded enough evidence to cast serious doubt onthe economic beneÞts of FX hedging programs.Even the most superbly designed and executedprograms seem not to reduce cashßow volatilitysigniÞcantly for most Þrms. Given the scarcemanagement time and substantial capital sumscurrently devoted to hedging, it is clear that manyprograms destroy value instead of protecting it.
How can it be that hedging programs that appearso elegant in theory donÕt work in practice? Thereason, we believe, is that the theory assumes astatic world in which all factors apart from FXrates stay exactly the same. In real life, however, ahost of other variables Ð demand for parts andproducts, supply of raw materials, regulatory
frameworks, cost and productivity of labor andcapital Ð all change just as FX rates change.For a hedging programto work, it must increasethe Òtime to ruinÓThe goal is to reduce thevariability of cashßows
A new study shows thatfew companies succeedTom Copeland is a partner in McKinseyÕs New York oÄÞce andFX risk
RISK MANAGEMENT
113. Baker and BestorÕs Staple
114. BrothertonÕs Arched Barb
115. ClawÕs Crossover Lock
116. EdenbornÕs Locked-in Barb
117. FordÕs Kink and Wrap Barb
118. GliddenÕs Heavy Duty
119. KellyÕs Swing Barb
120. LockeÕs Loop Lock
121. NadelhofferÕs Crossover
122. PrestonÕs Long Barb
123. RiterÕs Visible
124. UphamÕs Lazy ÒSÓ
125. Waco Twist
126. WilkesÕ Two Staple
In the nineteenth century there were hundreds of diÄferent types of barbed wireavailable, each designed to deal with a particular kind of risk.Moreover, the relationships between all these factors are constantly shiÄting.Hard enough to understand in hindsight, they are virtually impossible topredict in advance. All told, FX winds up as only one of many drivers oftotal cashßow Ð and a small one at that.
Of all the variables that inßuence a ÞrmÕs Þnancial performance, FX is buta minor contributor to total risk, except in the event of catastrophic
currency failures like that of the Mexican peso in 1995, which standard
hedging programs are not in any case designed to cope with. This means
that even eliminating FX risk completely Ð a practical impossibility Ð wouldhardly budge the needle on the total risk faced by a Þrm. A notable
exception may be commodity and commodity-related businesses, where
total cashßow is far more closely correlated to exchange rates or easily
hedgeable commodities.*Below, we evaluate FX risk management programs that are based on theuse of Þnancial derivatives. The details apply only to corporations lookingto manage FX risk. However, the principles and methodology are alsorelevant to other kinds of risk management, such as interest rate riskmanagement or commodity hedging.
Why manage risk, anyway?
The logic behind FX hedging is intuitively appealing. Consider the
Japanese unit of a US Þrm that buys its goods from the United States
for dollars and sells them in Japan for yen. W论文英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写英语论文代写代写论文代写英语论文代写留学生论文代写英文论文留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。

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