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ictability of exchange rates. However, it is between short-term and long-term predictability to distinguish. For short-term speculative inflows defense, it is important that the exchange rate in the short term have some variability. However, against this, the foreign traders can easily lock. In the longer term, however, a policy of 'managed floating' allows a relative stable development of the real exchange rate - especially compared to a system of floating rates. This is particularly important for investors in the industrial area of importance A third weakness of the 'managed floating' is the asymmetric controllability of exchange rates. As already mentioned, it is much easier for a central bank to prevent an appreciation as devaluation. It can therefore not be excluded in the 'managed floating', that a central bank - e.g. comes under a considerable speculative attack - because of a contagion effect. This can make an unwanted devaluation required, which leads to domestic disturbances:

To avert inflationary pressure, the central bank must now embark a policy mix with considerably higher real interest rates. This not only increases interest of public expenditure, it also leads to a disproportionate restriction pressure on the domestic economic sectors (construction, services) that can not benefit from the devaluation. The facilities newly created by the International Monetary Fund in recent years (Supplemental Reserve Facility (SRF); Contingent Credit Line (CCL)) offer very flexible and large short-term financial assistance to countries that have fallen through no fault under downward pressure. To ask is, however, whether it is really appropriate for the CCL to demand an interest premium of 300 to 500 basis points, as for candidate countries are subject to very strict criteria.

7. Summary 总结

In 2001, presents the international financial market architecture in a much less error-prone condition than a few years earlier. That does not mean that crises escalations can be completely ruled out in Turkey as the last. The example of Turkey also shows that crises are to be expected, especially if the macroeconomic stabilization solely or largely based on the instrument in a 'exchange rate anchor '.

The main disadvantage of this emerged in recent years, 'spontaneous order' is that will operate a targeted 'monetary dumping' under the guise of 'managed floating'. Careful monitoring of exchange rate policies of the IMF and the WTO seems urgently.

With the dominance of 'managed floating' capital controls are most in extreme crisis cases required, but never as a constituent element of the international monetary system, as envisaged by, for example, the supporters of a 'Tobin tax'. The concept of target zones has become obsolete, because with 'managed floating' is already a very specific exchange rate policy is pursued.

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