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1. Introduction:
The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 has led to the global economic recession. Some people think that the proliferation of complex financial derivatives were to blame for this crisis and others ascribe the crisis to banks’ lending too much money to the poor. This article will explore the major cause of the crisis, that is, mortgage-backed securities, combined with the financial instability hypothesis and the Black Swan theory. Then it will further evaluate the current policies and measuresin response to the crisis.

1 引言

2007的次级抵押贷款危机爆发导致了全球的经济衰退的。有些人认为，复杂的金融衍生品的扩散是这场危机的主要原因，金融危机的爆发主要源于其他银行将过多的钱贷款给穷人。本文将探讨的这场危机的主要原因，结合金融不稳定假说和“黑天鹅”理论分析抵押贷款支持证券。然后，它将进一步评估当前的政策和应对金融危机的措施。

2.MBS : key to the global financial crisis
we can explain the mortgage-backed securities(MBS) by a simple example. As the interest rates kept low for long, house owners mortgaged their property to the bank to obtain funds for real estate speculation. The banks packaged the loans into securities and sold them to other banks or insurance companies. These mortgage-backed securities had changed hands many times and eventually a bank bought the securities at a high price. Most of these banks used leverage to increase the expected benefits, but at the same time the risk multiplied. All participants would gain from the rising real estate prices, but the prices would not rise forever. Someday when the house prices started to fall, nearly all the banks involved were facing bankruptcy. Thus, the credit crisis erupted. We can use the financial instability hypothesis to understand this example. In the hypothesis, Minsky(1992) believed that financial capitalism itself is inherently unstable, and the financial crises and their harm to the economy were inevitable. Minsky defined three types of finance, that is , the hedge finance, speculative finance and ponzi finance. In the rising phase of the business cycle, operating cash flow keeps growing while financing requirements are eased and interest rate is low. However, once the economy steps into stagnation, it will be very difficult to maintain operation by borrowing liquidity. At this point, hedge firms(with sufficient cash flow) may change into speculative firms and ponzi firms and the original ponzi firms will have to pay the debt by selling assets. The rapid spread of default and distrust will lead to bankruptcy of individuals and banks. In the end, the credit crisis broke out. The mortgage-backed securities badly beat the financial system for three aspects: firstly, low interest rates led to credit abuse and people satisfied their long-term capital expenditure needs through short-term liabilities, and the banks issued too many loans. The research of Douglas and Raghuram (2009) shows that causes of the crisis is mainly because that the U.S. financial sector misallocated resources to real estate. Secondly, the banks created the mortgage-backed securities to enhance the liquidity of the loans. But the default risk is amplified by high leverage embedded in this complex derivatives instruments. Thirdly, the asset price bubble burst ,especially the deepening housing corrections, had resulted in the depreciation of subprime bonds and bankruptcy of many banks and , what’s worse , the recession of economy.

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