摘要:当前基于财务指标的企业预警系统,忽视了造成企业危机的非财务因素,且预警的时效性普遍欠佳。本文在平衡计分卡的框架下,构建了企业财务与非财务相结合的预警模型。并引入功效系数法对预警模型加以量化,以帮助企业监测警度、预报警情,及时采取措施,规避财务风险。
ilities , speeding assets = cash + short-term securities + bills + high credibility customer receivables , net.
4 Multiples of interest earned = EBIT / total interest expense.
5 Gearing ratio = total liabilities / total assets .
6 cash payment security ratio = current available cash resources / Current number of expected cash payments .
( Two ) operational capacity warning indicators
1 Inventory turnover ( times ) = cost of sales / average balance of inventories .
2 Inventories average occupancy period = (Σ variety of inventory that kind of occupation period × the amount of inventories ) / Σ various amount of inventories .
3 Accounts receivable turnover ratio = Operating income / average balance of accounts receivable .
4 sales and accounts receivable sensitivity coefficient = rate of change of sales / receivables rate of change.
5 Current Assets Turnover = Operating income / average balance of current assets , current assets reflect utilization efficiency .
6 Total assets turnover = Operating income / average balance of total assets , total assets used to evaluate the utilization efficiency .
7 finished goods inventory backlog rate = ( Inventory Inventories - Security reserves ) / average inventory.
8 the proportion of non-performing assets .
( Three ) the profitability of early warning indicators
1 Operating margin = operating profit / revenue .
(2) Return on total assets = EBIT / average total assets.
3 ROE = Net profit / net assets , to measure the company's own capital utilization efficiency .
4 cost margin = ( Operating profit / total cost ) , the index reflects a dollar per spend their rewards .
5 Economic Value Added (EVA) = EBIT - Capital occupy several × consolidated capital costs. Compared with the traditional indicators , taking into account the economic value of its own corporate cost of capital , to compare the image directly reflects the ability of companies to create new values . Economic value added equal in number to the proceeds of business after deducting the cost of all the elements of the residual value . Therefore, it is a " total factor compensation " concept . [ 3]
( Four ) early warning indicators of development capacity
1 Revenue Growth Rate = current operating income growth over / previous period 's total revenue , if the company in a certain period of revenue growth is lower than the growth rate of the market capacity , it is a warning signal.
2 = annual growth rate of fixed assets, net fixed assets / year of fixed assets, the indicators show that the scale of business development and updating of fixed assets degree .
3 = annual R & D investment growth of R & D investment net increase / year total R & D investment , the index reflects changes in corporate R & D investment trends and innovations in the business ability to react quickly .
(4) Capital Maintenance and Appreciation = Ending equity / equity at the beginning , the index reflects companies increase or decrease in net assets , net of objective factors of changes in the situation , enterprise development capabilities embodied.
( Five ) Cash flow capability indices
(1) Cash flow ratio = Cash inflow / outflow of cash , cash inflows used to analyze and predict the overall security of the cash outflow capacity . Index > 1 indicates that the enterprise as
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