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1. A company is trying to decide if prototyping is worthwhile on the project.  They have come up with the cost of prototyping of $100,000.  If invest in the prototype, the chance to fail could be 30% and it will have an impact of $200,000.  If do not prototyping the project, failure could be 50% with an impact of $450,000.  Based on these limited data, will you recommend prototyping?

2. As result of your risk planning, you’ve discovered:
a. There is a 20% chance that the QA testing of the software development project will have more bugs than planned, causing a 20 day delay to the project and an additional cost of $30,000.
b. There is a 10% chance that the additional programmers needed for the project will be more expert than initially planned. If this happens the project could save 20 days on the schedule and additional cost of $10,000.
c. There is a 50% chance that the installation will require some building reconstruction that has not been able to be predicted, resulting in a 60 day delay in the project and a cost of $19,000.

3. Which Equipment to rent?
You are the project leader for system testing in a recently upgraded plant.  The plant produces cosmetic products.  One of the plant activities requires equipment and its related simulation programs to complete the system integration check.  Let us call this activity B3. As of today, activity B3 is not on critical path.

Your company will have to rent this equipment and its necessary software for this task. There are two alternatives; their comparisons: speed of the CPU in the equipment and the outcomes (in project delay days) are shown in the Table:

  Slower CPU Faster CPU
Delay Probability Delay Days Probability Delay Days
Long 0.4 17 0.5 14
Medium 0.4 10 0.2 8
Short 0.2 4 0.3 6

What we know:
Both CPU are suitable for B3.
The potential for B3 to be on the critical path does exist, with the probabilities:

Use Slower CPU 30% chance B3 could be late
Use Faster CPU 20% chance B3 could be late

The Slower CPU equipment rents for $10,000 and Faster CPU equipment rents for $18,000. (The costs are based on quotes by vendors and they are costs for the entire duration of task B3.  Addition for extending the rent will be applied with %///)
Each day’s delay in project completion costs our company $5,000.
To simplify the equation, ignore any staff cost savings with the Faster CPU equipment.

Please address questions:
a) What are the major explicit assumptions?
b) What are the implicit assumptions?
c) Any forgotten factors that may have an impact on the cash flow?
d) Are there any assumptions you’d like to challenge? Which ones? Why?
e) Which equipment should you choose?
Decision tree:
4. Project risk https://www.51lunwen.org/riskmanagement/ management? What are you talking about?
At a dinner party, an acquaintance asks what’s new with you, and you mention that you have just completed a project risk management course. Your friend asks what risk management is and why anyone would want to study risk management. How would you answer?
5. Final reflection