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Abstract
The exchange rate is between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation’s currency in terms of the home nation’s currency. Since it’s a kind of price, as a significant part of the pricing system, the fluctuation of the exchange rate is able to change the relative price of the import and export commodities in a country or an area. It would have an impact on the exportation of a country or an area and have a lever effect to its balance of payments. This paper analyses the historical data of China’s exportation and real effective exchange rate during 1978-2008 at the beginning. Secondly, focuses on both the theoretical derivation and the positive analysis in order to explore the relevance www.51lunwen.org between the exchange rate fluctuation of CNY and China’s exportation. The theoretical derivation is based on elasticity approach, Marshall-Lerner Condition and J curve effect in order to prove the China’s exportation is associated with the fluctuation of the CNY, and created the linear function .Thirdly, under the new real effective exchange rate, making a positive analysis which is based upon the model (linear function) deduced earlier. The quantitative methods adopt the ADF test, Least square method and Granger test of causality. Finally, predicts the future of exchange rate fluctuation of CNY and gives the suggestions to solve the problems it brings.
Introduction
The mechanism of CNY exchange rate and the China’s exportation
The research background of this paper
The research methods
1The Analysis on the historical data of CNY exchange rate fluctuation and China’s Exportation
1.1 Review the history of development and reform of CNY (1978—2005)
1.2 The current exchange rate regime of CNY (since 2005)
1.2 The exportation fluctuation during each period of CNY exchange rate reform
1.2.1 The historical data of the export change in real terms (1980-2005)
1.2.2 The preliminary analysis and surmise between the data of CNY exchange rate fluctuation and China’s exportation
2The theoretical analysis on the fluctuation of exchange rate and exportation
2.1 Elasticity Approach
2.1.1 Introduction and precondition of Elasticity Approach
2.1.2 Assessment of Elasticity Approach
2.2 Marshall-www.51lunwen.orgLerner Condition
2.2.1 Overview on Marshall-Lerner Condition
2.2.2 The defect and extension of Marshall-Lerner Condition
2.3 “J” curve effect
2.3.1 The cause of formation of “J” curve effect
2.3.2 Analysis of the 3 stages of “J” curve effect
3 The positive analysis on the fluctuation of exchange rate and exportation
3.1Theoretical derivation on the fluctuation of exchange rate and exportation
3.1.1 The export function and export elasticity
3.1.2 The numerical method and formulas

3.2 The positive analysis over the real effective exchange rate of CNY and its impact on China’s exportation
3.2.1The measurement and calculation of the real effective exchange rate of CNY (1980-2005)
3.2.2 The quantitative analysis over fluctuation of CNY and China’s balance on trade account
3.2.2.1 The model assumption
3.2.2.2 The stationary test of the data
3.2.2.3 Granger test of causality
3.2.2.4 Elasticity Approach
3.2.2.5 Conclusion
3.3 The impact of exchange rate fluctuation on exportation
3.3.1 The short term impact of exchange rate fluctuation on exportation