摘要:本文是一篇研究美国失业率的决定因素的留学生论文,失业率是最重要的宏观经济绩效的指标。失业率的出现是由于非竞争性工资差别造成的不正常的劳动力供应。从1945年至少到1968年的这段时期,欧洲主要的经济体的失业率比今天的标准低很多。
stic product is expected to be negatively related. Edward (2007) stated there is a negative relationship between real gross domestic product and unemployment because of the theory of Okun’s law. According to Okun’s law, 1% increase in the unemployment rate will decrease GDP by 3%. However, Christopher (2010) said that, Okun coefficients can change over time because the relationship of unemployment to output growth depends on laws, technology, preferences, social customs, and demographics.
3.2.2 Unemployment and Consumer Price Index
Consumer price index is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. This is because large rises in CPI during a short period of time typically denote periods of inflation. Therefore, we expect that there is an inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and rate of inflation. According to the Phillips Curve theory, if the unemployment is high, inflation tends to be low. The diagram below shows the Phillips curve.
Inflation
Phillips curve
Unemployment
However, the result shows a positive relationship in our regression model. This problem will occur because of the multicolinearity problem in our regression model. But when one independent variable by one independent variable with the unemployment is tested, negative sign for consumer price index and unemployment are obtained. Bae (2006) stated that there is a positive long run relationship between unemployment and inflation.
3.2.3 Unemployment and Foreign Direct Investment
In this study, inflow of foreign direct investment were expected to affect the unemployment rate significantly and expected that foreign direct investment has a negative long run relationship with unemployment. Foreign direct investment will increase job opportunities so, unemployment rate will decrease. Shu (2007) stated that FDI have negative effects on unemployment as FDI are expected to generate economic growth by encouraging the expansion of trade and foreign investment.
3.3 Econometric Methodology
3.3.1 Introduction
This chapter consist the used of the method to examining the relationship between the unemployment and economic condition in United State by using the time series data ranging from the year 1970 to 2007. First, the result testing will start with the test of stationary by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and proceed with the cointegration test. Secondly, the Multiple Regression Analysis and several ways to detect the assumption of the Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM). The multicollinearity is used to test the correlation analysis. Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test is used to test the existence of serial autocorrelation, Autoregression Conditional Heteroscedasticity Test is used for testing the heteroscedasticity variance of error of the model and Ramsey RESET Test is used to detect the linearity regression and misspecification error.
Unemployment = f (RGDP, FDI, CPI)
RGDP = Real Gross Domestic Product
FDI = Foreign Direct Investment
CPI = Consumer Price Index
The change in unemployment is our main study that we want to examine with using a few of variables which are RGDP (Real Gross Domestic Product), FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and CPI (Consumer Pri
本论文由英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写,英语论文代写,代写论文,代写英语论文,代写留学生论文,代写英文论文,留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。