经济学留学生论文范文:回顾费雪假设 [5]
论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:课程作业 Coursework登出时间:2015-11-10编辑:zhaotianyun点击率:11949
论文字数:4704论文编号:org201511062021495095语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:实证模型inflation
摘要:这是一篇经济学专业留学生论文范文,本文主要讲述了费舍尔假说,并以印度为例。
re only able to prove the fisher relation in Mexico and Argentina. Likewise, a Study by Thornton (1996) that explores the fisher hypothesis using 91- day Treasury bill rates, and inflation rates over the period 1978-1974 is also able to verify the fisher effect in Mexico. Phylaktis and Blake (1993) use cointegration techniques and unit root tests in their studies of the long-run fisher effect within Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. Utilizing data over 1970-1980 they find that a one-for-one long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates exists in all three countries. A later study conducted by Carneiro, Divino and Rocha (2002) investigating the same three countries could only find support for the fisher effect in Argentina and Brazil. Carneiro, Divino and Rocha (2002) used monthly data over the 1980-1997 periods and carried out Johansen cointegration analysis and weak exogeneity tests to show that the interest rates changed in order to compensate for changes in expected inflation. This was found in the context of Brazil and Argentina but analysis over the period of Mexico showed that inflation rates adjusted to reflect changes in interest rates. A key observation that arises from the Latin American studies above is the relative consistency in results with substantial evidence in favor of the fisher effect. Wafa and Sabah (2007) employ panel unit root tests for 10 East Asian countries3. Key motivation behind this choice of methodology was to achieve greater power in their tests compared to that of traditional unit root tests, by taking advantage of the cross-country differences in estimation of the data4. Using the panel unit root tests, Wafa and Sabah (2007) were able to prove a long-run relation existed between nominal interest rates and inflation for all the East Asian Countries. They find support for the view expressed by Granville and Mallick (2004) of monetary policy being a useful means of influencing long-term interest rates. A more recent test of the Fisher hypothesis for 6 Asian countries5 by Nusair (2008) finds fairly contradictory results. Nusair (2008) analyses quarterly data over the period 1978-2005 and uses the Engle-granger procedure, Gregory-Hansen procedure, and Dynamic OLS tests (DOLS), to identify a long-run linear relationship between nominal interest rates and expected rates of inflation. Support for the Fisher hypothesis is obtained for Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Using the Engle-granger methodology Nusair (2008) finds robust evidence for Thailand, and weak evidence for Korea and Malaysia. The Gregory-Hansen method also used by Nusair (2008) “accounts for an endogenously determined shift in the cointegrating vector” and shows support at the 10% level for Singapore and Malaysia, and at the 5% level for Korea. In summary, robust support for the fisher effect is only found in Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Peng (2009) finds similar results to that of Berument Ceylan & Olgun (2007) in his analysis of the Fisher effect in China. Peng (2009) uses the Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration technique to study data over the period 1993-2005, and establishes a cointegrating association between nominal interest rates and inflation. Peng (2009) also employs the error correction model to determine long and short-run fisher effects, and find insufficient proof to support a short-run fisher effect.
Paul (1984) is one of the earliest studies that analyses the Fisher
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