摘要:代写新西兰硕士论文-人口老龄化对新西兰的人群健康与残疾人事业影响-New Zealand Institute for Research on Ageing (NZiRA)
and the Health Services Research Centre (HSRC),
Victoria University of Wellington
Citation: Cornwall J and Davey J. 2004. Impact of Population Ageing in New Zealand on the
Demand for Health and Disability Support services, and Workforce Implications.IMPLICATIONS
and series 4
projections 3
Table 2: Projected population, by age group and ethnicity, 2001 (base) and projections for
2011 and 2021 4
Table 3: Ethnic groups as a percentage of total population, 2001 (base) and projections for
2011 and 2021 5
Table 4: Age group 65 and over, by ethnicity, 2001 (base) and projections for 2011 and
2021 5
Table 5: Life expectancy at selected ages, by gender, New Zealand, 1995−97 12
Table 6: Life expectancy (years) at selected ages, by gender and ethnicity, 1995−97 13
Table 7: Estimated hospital and primary care costs in New Zealand, by gender, 2001, 2011
and 2021 21
Table 8: Discharges and weighted discharges 2001/02, 2011/12 and 2021/22, and
percentage change in weighted discharges 22
Table 9: DALE estimates at birth and at age 60, for selected WHO member states 25
Table 10: Expectation of years lived with disability, men and women, selected WHO member
states, 1999 25
Table 11: Level of disability, by age and residential status, 2001 33
Table 12: Prevalence of multiple disability, by age and residential status, 2001 33
Table 13: Estimated DSS expenditure by gender, 2001, 2011 and 2021 34
Impact of Population Ageing in New Zealand on the Demand for vii
Health and Disability Support Services, and Workforce Implications
Table 14: Projections for DSS expenditure to 2011 and 2021, by gender, assuming increased
life expectancy and delayed onset of disability 35
Table 15: Ten projected leading causes of DALYs in 2020 according to the baseline
projection in the Global Burden of Disease and Injury Study 37
Table 16: Base death rates and numbers of deaths for ischaemic heart disease, 1998/2000,
with projected deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and
ethnicity 42
Table 17: Base death rates and numbers of deaths for stroke, 1998/2000, with projected
deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and ethnicity 43
Table 18: Base death rates and numbers of deaths for COPD and asthma, 1998/00, with
projected deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and ethnicity 46
Table 19: Base death rates and numbers of deaths for diabetes, 1998/00, with projected
deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and ethnicity 48
Table 20: Male and female cancer registrations, 1996 and projections to 2011 49
Table 21: Base death rates and numbers of deaths for all cancers, 1998/00, with projected
deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and ethnicity 49
Table 22: Medium projected deaths from musculoskeletal disease from base 1998/2000 to
2011 and 2021, by gender for the other ethnic group 50
Table 23: Projected percentage change in mortality from falls resulting in fractures, by age
and gender, for Other ethnicity, 2001(base) to 2021 52
Table 24: Base death rates and numbers of deaths from fractures, 1998/2000, with projected
deaths to 2011 and 2021 (medium projection), by gender and ethnicity 52
Table 25: Percentage of people caring for an ill or disabled person, by age and gender, 2001 71
Table 26: Age group 20−39, percentage who looked after someone ill or disabled, by gender
and ethnicity, 2001 71
Table 27: Age group 40−59, percentage who looked after someone ill or disabled, by gender
and ethnicity, 2001 72
Table 28: Age group 60 and over, percentage who looked after someone ill or
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