英语论文网

stralia in the period 1970-2003. However, unlike other studies, theydeveloped different models which separate short and long term movement ofhouse prices. Their models were called long runequilibrium and short runasymmetric error correction models. Moreover, they cover the lagged,speculative effect and other disequilibria in housing market. The approach wasbased on the idea that long run house prices are determined by fundamental
factors such as real disposable income, consumer price index and that the shortrun house prices may fluctuate around the equilibrium position but continue toreadjust to the equilibrium position. However, the readjustment process isquicker when house prices are rising rather than falling or flattening becausehouse buyers tend to buy when prices are rising with the fear that they will behigher in the future. The study supported the theory that in the long run houseprices are strongly affected by real disposable income, unemployment, realinterest rates, equity prices, CPI and supply of housing and all the sign ofvariables are the same as expected. In the short run, this paper found significanttime lags in adjustment to equilibrium and the time of adjustment is varieddepending on the movement of house prices.
Jacobsen, D. and Naug, B. (2005) What drives house prices. Economic
Bulletin. vol. 76, iss. 1, pp 29-42.
This paper tried to answer two questions similar to those of my dissertation,which is finding what the most important fundamental factors of house pricesare, and examining whether there is a house price bubble in housing market. Itfound that interest rates, housing construction, unemployment and householdincome are the most fundamental factors of housing markets. The study did not
find the relationship between household debt and house prices and between
house prices and population and demographic factors. It also found that higherinterest rates will lead to house prices falling more in the short term than thelong term due to the delay of people purchasing houses and vice versa. Thisstudy also provided an approach to examining whether house prices wereovervalued by suggesting that if some of the price rises in the past reflected abubble, it would be shown by the instability of the coefficient of interest rates
and other factors in the model. OECD (2005) suggested that house prices in the
UK were overvalued by 30% in 2003/04 as a result of the so-called housing
bubble. However, Muellbauer and Murphy (2008) suggested that the high
housing price in 2003/04 was not due to the bubble effect but to strong growth
of income, high population growth and the result of high demand and lack of
supply of housing in the UK since 1997. This approach will be applied in my
dissertation to examine whether there is a price bubble in the UK housing
market.
Grandner, T. and Gstach, D. (2006) Joint adjustment of house prices, stock
prices and output towards short run equilibrium. Bulletin of Economic
Research. vol. 58, Iss. 1; pp. 1-14
This paper focused on the determinants of house prices, as do my dissertation’s
objectives; it provides a closer look at the adjustment of house prices following
an exogenous policy shock. It found that the volatility of house prices is higher
under monetary policy shock than it is under fiscal policy. The expansionary
fiscal policy has negative correlation with house prices whilst the expansionary
monetary policy increases house p