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摘要：外汇储备是衡量一国综合实力的重要指标之一.充足的外汇储备在调节国际收支、维持货值稳定、抵御国际金融风险方面起着重要作用。随着经济的高速增长和对外经贸交往规模的扩大，我国外汇储备规模不断扩大，已居于世界首位。而面对复杂多变的国际经济形势，高额外汇储备也带来较大的风险.本文对我国高额外汇储备的来源及风险进行了较为详细的分析并提出了相应的防范措施.

composition of China's foreign exchange reserves approximate that disclosed by the IMF—two thirds of China’s foreign exchange reserves are invested in the U.S. dollar reserves.

The lately disclosed data by the treasury department ofAmericashowed that Chinese investment in U.S. Treasury bonds was 1.15 trillion by the end of February, 2011. According to our estimates, taking the U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by China's central bank through offshore centers such as London, Hong Kong into account, the scale of China's reserves invested in U.S. Treasury bonds is about $ 1.3 trillion to $ 1.5 trillion currently, accounting for up to 43% to 49% of China's foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China,China's foreign exchange reserves were up to $ 3.04 trillion by the end of March 2011

2 Risks ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves

2.1. The main risk ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves

The more the foreign currency reserve assets are, the greater the exposed risk positions are. Specifically, it leads to the following risks.

2.1.1 Inflation risk and the risk of appreciation of RMB caused by the oversized foreign exchange reserves

With the continued growth of foreign exchange reserves and gradual increase of foreign exchange, the base currency devoted by the central bank increases continuously, exacerbating the crisis of domestic inflation. In order to hedge against foreign exchange, the central bank takes the measure of issuing bills and treasury bonds, raising the deposit reserve ratio and other measures. However, the amount of foreign exchange inflow is too large that the central bank’s power hedging against foreign exchange is relatively limited. Moreover, the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate due to the financial crisis, so the central bank purchases a large amount of dollars on the foreign exchange market in order to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate. The amount of RMB invested in the foreign exchange market increases, which aggravatesChina's inflation risk. Although the central bank enhanced tightening dynamics, the uncertainty of international economic environment increased[5].

The huge foreign exchange reserves also have a significant impact on the trend of the RMB exchange rate. On one hand, the constant expansion of foreign exchange reserves makes the expectation of RMB appreciation higher and a lot of hot money flows intoChina.Chinawith its economy developing continuous at a high speed has become the focus of hot money inflows especially in the context of the financial crisis. On the other hand, the international community represented by theUnited Statesalways attributes the continuous expansion ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves to the undervaluation of the RMB, so it has been asking the RMB to appreciate. In a word, with the continuous expansion ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves, the risk of the appreciation of the RMB will continue to increase faced with the combination of the economic situation and political pressure.

2.1.2 The risk of structural imbalance due to the overdependence on the U.S. dollar assets.

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