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This paper 美国留学生经济学论文 derives a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous toThirlwall’s Law from a Pasinettian multi-sector macro dynamic framework. The resulting formula, which we call the Multi-Sect oral Thirlwall’s Law, asserts theta country’s growth rate of per capita income is directly proportional to the growth rate of its exports, with such a proportionality being inversely (directly) related tosectoral income elasticity’s of demand for imports (exports). These incomeelasticities are weighted by coefficients that measure the share of each sector in total imports and exports, respectively. It is shown that several theoretical, empirical and policy implications can be drawn from such a structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth.

Keywords: Structural economic dynamics, Foreign trade multiplier, Balance-of payments-constrained growth, uneven

1.Introduction
The role played by aggregate demand in the determination of the level of economic activity is a contentious issue. While aggregate demand is asserted to interact with aggregate supply to determine output and employment in the short run in most macroeconomic models, it is only in some non-neoclassical macroeconomic models that the long-run performance of economic activity is asserted to be determined by aggregate demand as well. Indeed, neoclassical theories of economic growth—both in the original version developed by Solow(1956) and in the several endogenous-growth versions that have been developed since themid-1980s (see Again and Hewitt, 1998, for a review)—assume that the growth rate of per capita income is determined solely by supply-side factors. These incarnations of the neoclassical growth theory, by assuming that, in the long run, productive capacity in terms of capital and labor is always fully utilized, actually assume away the very possibility of growth being affected by effective demand.

In an open macro economy context, a forceful Keynesian demand-oriented approachemphasising the external constraints to growth is the so-called theory of ‘balance-of payments-constrained growth’ (hereafter referred to as BP-constrained growth), also known as ‘Thirlwall’s Law’ (after Thirlwall, 1979)—although Thirlwall (1997, p. 378) himself would come to argue that perhaps ‘stylized fact’ or ‘empirical generalization’, rather than‘law’, would be a better description.
Basically, the theory of BP-constrained growth postulates that the balance-of-payments position of a country is the main constraint on its growth rate, since it imposes a limit on demand to which supply can (usually) adapt. As it turns out, observed differences in growth performance between countries are associated with the relative strength of their balance-ofpaymentsposition. According to Thirlwall (1979), if we assume that real exchange rates are constant and that trade must be balanced in the long run, there is a very close correspondencebetweenthe growth rate of output and the ratio of the growth of exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports. Indeed, this result is the prediction of a dynamic version of theHarrodtrade multiplier (1933), of which Thirlwall claimed not to be aware at the time, and it Isa consistent alternative to the still predominant, neoclassical view that growth-rate differences should be explained by exogenous diff本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。